$ 16 bubble play

[Bedz]

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Fold even if is doing this with atc.

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Hmm, I thought this was a hard one, how can it be good folding even if he is pushing any two?

[bighomeytim]

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Fold even if is doing this with atc.

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Hmm, I thought this was a hard one, how can it be good folding even if he is pushing any two?

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Well yeah but with a raise like that how can you put him on any 2. Remember any little pair will have us crushed ev wise.

[Rek]

If he is pushing ATC then I think you shove here but I disagree slightly with DannyO because I can't see any FE here.

However, just because he did it the hand before doesn't mean he has not had 2 legit hands in a row.

It is very marginal IMO and I may let this orbit go if all I have is the 2 hands of information you quote. This is by no means someone pushing ATC.

[aghasax]

Seems like you have to be sure he opens ATC or folds the bottom part of his range to push here, and only with that read you can't be sure of either of that. Even if he is opening ATC and calls every time ( I think you can count on him folding to your push only a very small percent of times), it's still very marginal.

[flatbroke]

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If he is pushing ATC then I think you shove here but I disagree slightly with DannyO because I can't see any FE here.

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I disagree, you often see a bully on the bubble, IMO this is an easy push.
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yes he does get my 300 almost every round; im real tight in this situation. Maybe AQs & TT+. Again you got 10bb, assuming you got decent bubble knowledge you can easily wait for better/more clear +EV spots.

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IMO we don't got a lot of time, are we waiting for AA??

am I going blind, I push this all day against aggro

[pricklypete]

If he's been aggro a lot then push. But OP only said he had done this twice so without any other reads, that looks like a fold. If anything I would give him more credit for the second "steal" than the first since he probably know's it looks like he's stealing. If he keeps doing it, sure then push with a moderate hand, but twice in a row does not make him a maniac.

[Scotty_12]

Im happy to get it in here. His range shoulc be massive and we arent guaranteed 3rd if we get into a folding contest (but we are more or less guaranteeing third to ourself or BB)

We dont have alot of FE (if any) but more often than not we are likely to be 60% here, which is enough for me to go for the double up and become a commanding 2nd in chips.

I think one option is to flat pre and shove any flop (maybe check A and J high flops if you think he'll bet) he might be more likely to lay down his garbage there and you take away his chance to see 2 more cards

[pearljem]

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Im happy to get it in here. His range shoulc be massive and we arent guaranteed 3rd if we get into a folding contest (but we are more or less guaranteeing third to ourself or BB)

We dont have alot of FE (if any) but more often than not we are likely to be 60% here, which is enough for me to go for the double up and become a commanding 2nd in chips)
totally agree with this.we still only have between 9 and 10bb ourselfs.the bb has 6bb so even if we fold here,we will b in the same postion as bb in 2 orbits.if the button had a monster why would he make such a big bet into short stacked bb?remember 1 first is better than 2 thirds.play to win and take this positive cEV situation.