A8o in the BB: Figuring out this Commitment Threshold/Planning thing

[private joker]

I'm still working out my bet-sizing, and furthermore I'm clueless as to how we're supposed to change our plan if an ugly card comes off. Flynn/Mehta don't spend much time in the book on what to do if the pot-size shove you were planning to make on the river turns into a bad idea if the wrong card comes off. If they do, I missed it.

Anyway, to the hand: Live 5/10 $400 max, I've got just under 400. Both opponents have me way covered.

3 players limp, the SB folds, and I have red A8o in the BB. I check.

4 to the flop, pot=45.

Flop comes A73 with 2 spades. I lead out for 25, and two players call. At this point, I figured I hadn't yet put in 10% of my stack and I wasn't committed and I was just testing the waters with a 1/2 pot bet to see if my kicker was good. When I'm called in 2 spots I aim to shut down unless I improve, right?

3 to the turn for a pot of 120.

The turn brings the awesome 8c. Now with top 2, I decide I am committed. I have 335 left in my stack, which is ~2 large bets (about 3/4 of the pot) if I am called by one opponent on the turn.

So I bet out 100, right? That's what I did... planning to put the rest in if raised. Now let's say I get one fold and one call. The pot will be 320 and I'll have 235 left. I'm planning to shove the river, of course, but what if it brings a spade? Do I abandon ship and check? Or did I commit myself with the turn bet and should therefore ignore the spade draw and shove absolutely any and all rivers?

[Niediam]

I'm pretty sure either in the book or in one of the many threads the authors have posted in that they said that a bad card basically discommit you.

In your hand I think you are still commited. Whether it's best to bet or check and call probably depends on the specific villian.

But lets change your example a little. Same hand but you have A5 instead and the turn is a 5. Now say the river is a 7 counterfitting your two pair. In this situation I don't think you are committed anymore and can check and fold (even though you may wish to call if you think villian is bluffing enough based upon bet size).

[JavaNut]

They do mention in the book, that a bad river or even turn card can make you uncommit, but they do not dig into the subject, can't wait for vol 2.

The example Niediam gives is very good, at the turn you have two pair, which most likely is good so you plan to be commited unless a 7 shows up on the river.

The whole concept of planning to commit or not has been created to avoid putting money into the pot without a good plan. Your flop bet is good as it has a very good chance to win you the pot and if not, you have not put yourself into a tough spot. Once the favourable turn comes you have to make the decision then on whether to commit or not. And as a part of the decision, you decide for a plan to get your stack into the pot. In that plan you also decide how may scary cards there could come on the river if you decide to need to bring your stack to the middle in more than one action.

Say you have Q2o on a QJ6 flop with 2 spades and a non spade 2 comes on the turn, and you figure you are ahead, but any spade or A, K, J, T, 9, or 6 is a scare card for you, just about 27 cards or more than 50% of the possible rivers leaves you with a tough spot, should you then plan to move your stack in in two actions on turn and river, where you risk both opponents call and getting an unfavourable river where you will have to c/f? Probably not, perhaps shoving at the turn is the best option, hoping for only one opponent to call, making you the favorite.

[Nick C]

For whatever this may be worth, if we turn this around and place the last player to act in the position, with a flush draw, of facing a $100 bet and a fold on the turn, then he'd be making a pretty optimistic call, since he can't really rely on perfect implied odds, and he very nearly needs those. (Plus, we know, and he may not, that the 8s is not an out for him.)

Of course, that doesn't mean that someone with a flush draw will actually fold to the turn bet. But he probably should, unless he now has a straight draw to go with his flush draw.

Anyway, I think you're mostly hoping someone has a worse two pair (like 87, A7 or A3) or a big ace he decides is worth taking to showdown for your stack (with the chances of a big ace being somewhat diminished by the preflop action). I don't think you're getting heavy action too often on this board, and if you do, I'm not ecstatic about it (sandbagged sets are a concern), although I agree that you should be willing to commit yourself on that turn card.

Er, anyway, I think that if you're called on the turn, a spade river does put you in a tough spot, and I'm not sure what's best.

Checking with the plan of making a decision might be an option.

[James.]

you can decommit if a scarecard comes. we aren't supposed to play like robots, adjust for the board.

i bet more on the flop. like 35-40.

i would probably 3/4 the turn.

betting more early makes it easier to get paid off later.

btw, this is like the blind leading the blind. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[durron597]

i don't feel like writing out good numbers, but the gist of it is this: if you think your hand is good 80% of the time on the turn, but that's because 60% of the time (60% of all the time not of that 80%) he is on a spade draw... then when the spade hits on the river you are only good 20% and are thus no longer committed to put the remaining 235 in as you are not getting proper odds on a 5:1 shot. i know my numbers are terrible but i hope i got my point across

[gonores]

Better way to look at the situation:

"One of my opponents probably has spades. What do I have to bet such that he can never properly call the turn with spades, even if I call his push on a spade river 100% of the time?"

[bbbushu]

[ QUOTE ]
Better way to look at the situation:

"One of my opponents probably has spades. What do I have to bet such that he can never properly call the turn with spades, even if I call his push on a spade river 100% of the time?"

[/ QUOTE ]
this is the kinda thing im struggling with so far

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Better way to look at the situation:

"One of my opponents probably has spades. What do I have to bet such that he can never properly call the turn with spades, even if I call his push on a spade river 100% of the time?"

[/ QUOTE ]
this is the kinda thing im struggling with so far

[/ QUOTE ]

Its not too hard to do the maths.

There is 120 in the pot on the turn and Hero has 335 left. Therefore the most that villian can win is 455 if Hero is pot committed and will always shove on the river.

Next, villain has 8 outs to the nut flush, as the 8s makes a full house for hero. (Ty to earlier poster for noticing this.)

Villain's odds of making the nut flush with 1 card to come are therefore 46:8 or 4.75:1.

That means that a bet of 455/5.75 = the breakeven point = 79.

So any bet of 80 or above by hero would make calling with a fd -EV for villain.

Of course, random villains often will make -EV calls, and so it is still difficult for hero to know what to do if the 3rd flush card falls on the river.

[bbbushu]

thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]