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#21
08-17-2007, 03:26 AM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
[ QUOTE ]
What advice can you give the rest of us??? [/ QUOTE ] The edge you potentially have is information. Get more of it, get it first, or analyze something (i.e. statistically) better than the linesmaker. Adjust your bet based on the quality of the information or the statistical advantage. Barring an information advantage, do not bet except for fun. And please, be wary of false positive data, data derived from a false premise, or a "lucky" streak that you assume is you having an edge. Note that just about nobody who wins consistently posts their picks on the web, or if they do, they do it so the lines move (i.e. people follow them). Either they are experimenting with some stupid formula Excel has spit out, they feel like masturbating on a forum because they've like omg watched so many games they can pick now, or they're just a moron. Either way, anything on a forum should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Handicappers do their [censored] on the down low either by themselves or with a syndicate. Finally, if you do get something that works, manage your bankroll properly. Bankroll management is a huge problem for idiots. 
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#22
08-17-2007, 10:43 AM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
I agree with trixtrix
OP should quit If you can read the math behind Kelly and still not buy into it for bet-sizing, well..... quit BTW, I"m a very very small winner, like .4% ROI. I'm not ashamed to admit it.
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#23
08-17-2007, 12:40 PM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What advice can you give the rest of us??? [/ QUOTE ] The edge you potentially have is information. Get more of it, get it first, or analyze something (i.e. statistically) better than the linesmaker. Adjust your bet based on the quality of the information or the statistical advantage. Barring an information advantage, do not bet except for fun. And please, be wary of false positive data, data derived from a false premise, or a "lucky" streak that you assume is you having an edge. Note that just about nobody who wins consistently posts their picks on the web, or if they do, they do it so the lines move (i.e. people follow them). Either they are experimenting with some stupid formula Excel has spit out, they feel like masturbating on a forum because they've like omg watched so many games they can pick now, or they're just a moron. Either way, anything on a forum should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Handicappers do their [censored] on the down low either by themselves or with a syndicate. Finally, if you do get something that works, manage your bankroll properly. Bankroll management is a huge problem for idiots. [/ QUOTE ] Thumbs up.
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#24
08-17-2007, 01:59 PM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
I think you summarized it all, Domer. Thanks, and word up...
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#25
08-17-2007, 02:03 PM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
[ QUOTE ]
Note that just about nobody who wins consistently posts their picks on the web, or if they do, they do it so the lines move (i.e. people follow them). Either they are experimenting with some stupid formula Excel has spit out, they feel like masturbating on a forum because they've like omg watched so many games they can pick now, or they're just a moron. [/ QUOTE ] Amen to that. This confirms my suspicions that this forum is full of retards...
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#26
08-17-2007, 02:14 PM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, with no edge optimal bet size is $0. Yes, some people are long-term winners. I am good enough at CBB and lucky/good enough at CFB and a few others to be one so far. My advice is to pick off soft lines at sucky books like SIA if you don't know how to cap. You will win. [/ QUOTE ]
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#28
08-17-2007, 02:19 PM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
[ QUOTE ]
This thread has taken a stunning turn into actually having valuable information. [/ QUOTE ] only because of you, babydoll...
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#29
08-17-2007, 02:31 PM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This thread has taken a stunning turn into actually having valuable information. [/ QUOTE ] only because of you, babydoll... [/ QUOTE ] I was gonna go ImBen, but he has better grammar. Judging by post counts, perhaps OP w/ slew of gimmicks?
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#30
08-17-2007, 02:37 PM
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Re: So you\'re a winning handicapper, eh???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What advice can you give the rest of us??? [/ QUOTE ] The edge you potentially have is information. Get more of it, get it first, or analyze something (i.e. statistically) better than the linesmaker. Adjust your bet based on the quality of the information or the statistical advantage. Barring an information advantage, do not bet except for fun. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah. Pick one conference like MAC or Ivy for CBB or CFB, much easier to follow and beat the opening lines. [ QUOTE ] Either way, anything on a forum should be taken with a huge grain of salt. [/ QUOTE ] Yep. [ QUOTE ] Handicappers do their [censored] on the down low either by themselves or with a syndicate. [/ QUOTE ] Well, for Pros that's true. For people that have other, larger sources of income there's no reason not to post picks after you make them either with a writeup or without: whether it be Game of the Year type-picks on Penn v Princeton or Miami v Nevada, or just a day's pick you feel strongly about. Once I've Kelly bet I don't really care what other bettors do, with exception of add'tl info coming out. [unless I drunkenly bet more by accident] [ QUOTE ] Finally, if you do get something that works, manage your bankroll properly. Bankroll management is a huge problem for idiots. [/ QUOTE ] QFMFT. BR Mgmt is the #1 most important skill and it's not close.
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