People who are overpriced - Page 4

mynamewastaken · #31 02-24-2007, 04:45 PM

re Sabrina: I think the real answer is somewhere in between. Sabrina is way overpriced at 7 10 but she's better than 200-1 to win. I'd peg her around 75-1. Probably the best short on WSEX at the moment if you have the bankroll for it.

Ruprecht · #32 02-24-2007, 05:09 PM

OK. I just watched her performance again. She was better than I thought, and I thought she was pretty good the first time. She has real talent. She can sing.
If you want to short her, please let me know and I will be at WSEX or Intrade to get the other side when you get her to 20-1 for me. That shouldn't be a problem, since you say she has little or no shot.
I think it is WAAAAAYYYY too early to short her. There are some weak singers that will get the boot before her.
I did not really care for her week 1 performance myself (not my thing), but I would not be shorting any good singer this early-- and Sabrina is a good singer.

curtains · #33 02-24-2007, 05:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
re Sabrina: I think the real answer is somewhere in between. Sabrina is way overpriced at 7 10 but she's better than 200-1 to win. I'd peg her around 75-1. Probably the best short on WSEX at the
moment if you have the bankroll for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Put my money where my mouth is and shorted her for all I had in my WSEX acccount. Free money. Surprised her price didn't move. I know I said I was done gambling on AI this year but I just feel there is so little chance of her winning that it's not even gambling to do this. Anyway only had $770 in there, so risking 700 to win 49. If I had more money in there that I wasn't using at all I would have put it all against her.

The problem is that it only makes sense if you aren't really gambling on AI because other better deals will probably come up, and you'll need capital to take advantage of them.

curtains · #34 02-24-2007, 06:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OK. I just watched her performance again. She was better than I thought, and I thought she was pretty good the first time. She has real talent. She can sing.
If you want to short her, please let me know and I will be at WSEX or Intrade to get the other side when you get her to 20-1 for me. That shouldn't be a problem, since you say she has little or no shot.
I think it is WAAAAAYYYY too early to short her. There are some weak singers that will get the boot before her.
I did not really care for her week 1 performance myself (not my thing), but I would not be shorting any good singer this early-- and Sabrina is a good singer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude have you seen the show before this season? If Latoya London couldn't win, Sabrina sure as hell isn't winning. She has nothing for the American public to get attached to, and I'm quite sure she's an inferior singer to some of the others. Yeah she had one good performance, it means nothing in the grand scheme of things. Latoya London blew up the stage basically everytime she sang and lost out to the likes of Diana DeGarmo and Jasmine Trias.

mynamewastaken · #35 02-24-2007, 08:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
re Sabrina: I think the real answer is somewhere in between. Sabrina is way overpriced at 7 10 but she's better than 200-1 to win. I'd peg her around 75-1. Probably the best short on WSEX at the
moment if you have the bankroll for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Put my money where my mouth is and shorted her for all I had in my WSEX acccount. Free money. Surprised her price didn't move. I know I said I was done gambling on AI this year but I just feel there is so little chance of her winning that it's not even gambling to do this. Anyway only had $770 in there, so risking 700 to win 49. If I had more money in there that I wasn't using at all I would have put it all against her.

The problem is that it only makes sense if you aren't really gambling on AI because other better deals will probably come up, and you'll need capital to take advantage of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, you made a great bet. It might have even been a good short if it was just against her making F12. I would have done the same thing if I had an extra $770 lying around. But I just put my last $200 on Melinda at buy 19. She might not win but I can't see her outside the final 2. She's just too good and Simon loves her. In a weird way she reminds me of Bo (not the singing, just how I see her AI adventure playing out)

smbruin22 · #36 02-24-2007, 08:26 PM

i thought i posted something about this subject... and then not sure if i didn't complete the posting or if it was deleted...

but i'll keep it very simple (and unoffensive): anyone else starting to get tired of chris sligh's personality? i thought it was moderately neat on the audition show. now i don't feel that way....

Ruprecht · #37 02-24-2007, 08:31 PM

Maybe Sabrina doesn't last long. I doubt you have much insight into her singing. But shorting her NOW is foolish. She is very unlikely to go home this week. That means your position will get worse before it gets better.

If you can't tell who can sing (Sabrina can sing, London was very good, but you are way overboard about her abilities), and you are not shorting at the top of the market, or buying at the bottom, you will not beat this game. No chance.
Shorting a good singer after 1 performance is ridiculous. And we can tell she is good-- she didn't just have a lucky night.

curtains · #38 02-24-2007, 08:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe Sabrina doesn't last long. I doubt you have much insight into her singing. But shorting her NOW is foolish. She is very unlikely to go home this week. That means your position will get worse before it gets better.

If you can't tell who can sing (Sabrina can sing, London was very good, but you are way overboard about her abilities), and you are not shorting at the top of the market, or buying at the bottom, you will not beat this game. No chance.
Shorting a good singer after 1 performance is ridiculous. And we can tell she is good-- she didn't just have a lucky night.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude Im getting 12-1, I don't thnik shes anywhere close to being a 12-1 shot to actually win the entire competition. This isn't all about singing, not even close, and I think she's definitely not one of the top 3 singers, but even if she were she would be a far longer shot than 12-1.

If you want to risk 1000 bucks on Sabrina to win 11000 I'm ready.

Ruprecht · #39 02-24-2007, 08:48 PM

I never said I liked Sabrina to win it. What I did say was that your assessment of her chances is way out of line. And that if you have shorted her now, you have taken the worst of it, since there is not much chance of her going home this week. As others drop out, Sabrina will likely go higher in the marketplace. That's "Futures 101" stuff.
I also said that if you are unable to make a realistic line on her chances of winning, you will not beat this game or any other.
Is this how you bet sports ? "That team has no chance?"

curtains · #40 02-24-2007, 08:52 PM

The people who get eliminated are probably people who are at 2 0 on wsex right now. This is likely true for the next 2 weeks, which Sabrina may not even survive. If she has a subpar performance her stock will plummett almost instantly IMO.

Anyway started a seperate thread about this subject, so we can stop hijacking this one.