Stud Hi (300 BB downswing)

[Red_Diamond]

Alright, here we go again. The last two weeks I've tried to keep my downswing private (no one wants to hear bad beat stories), expecting things to improve again, but now I'm really running bad.

Almost 2 weeks ago I justed running into losing session after losing session. No surprise there, but the fact is, not ONCE have I had a winning session since then. Maybe it's just variance, and maybe I'm too paranoid but...

I'm losing between 25 to 55 BBs a day. That seems a little high, for almost 2 weeks consecutively? I say almost, because I took 2 days off just to keep my blood from boiling. Now sometimes I've been in the rock gardens waiting for fish to show up, and it's understandable the rake hits you there. But a lot of times, the fish show up, and here I am re-raising with my paired door card (and it's obvious I have trips), and I'm still re-capped back at the obvious flush draw which is for certain going to come in because I never seem to fill up LOL.

Maybe I'm blaming too much on bad luck there, so each session I read and re-read over 7CS and SSI, and go over my big pots I've lost in PT etc to see if I did anything wrong. All the time I'm telling myself it's just variance.

But now I don't know anymore. Maybe I've just degenerated into a donk myself and getting outplayed and don't know it. The only other thing that comes to mind is that I have noticed a lot of accusations of collusion at my tables. Normally I ignore those comments, though there are a few couples noted that I also obvserved who seem to always hang out together. But I don't think even if they were colluding, that would be enough to make up for such bad swings? Or would it. Besides, the stud community is so small that it's not uncommon to see anyhow.

I will try a few more thousand hands before this month is out. But I fear I'm hitting bottom here and may just switch to NL full time, or quit altogether.

And for the reccord, for many months I had been fighting tooth & nail to get an extra bet here & there, and save them here & here. Trying my hardest to grind up some winnings. So unless I've only been running lucky all that other time....

[RustyBrooks]

How many hands in the 2 week period you're talking about?

My worst downswing was about 300bb. It was awful. Fortunately I was propping at the time so I didn't lost that much awful $$ but it almost convinced me I didn't know what I was doing at all.

[Red_Diamond]

Rusty, I was doing about 600 hands a day.

Because I play pretty tight for the 25% ante tables, that lets me triple table often. I'm quick enough to make sure I see all exposed cards before I decide to play my hand(s). Therefore, I don't think the multi-tabling is the problem.

[RustyBrooks]

I wasn't implying it was. It's just that 2 weeks at 100 hands a day is not the same as 2 weeks at 1000 hands a day. I wouldn't classify downswings in terms of days for that reason. OK, so, we're talking about like 8500 hands here or a loss rate of -3.5bb/100. I've seen worse. I've also personally had wicked upswings over similar periods. As much as I'd rather make 2bb/100, every day, it never seems to go like that.

Maybe less tables would help, maybe not. Maybe a lower variance style would help, maybe not...

How many hands have you logged overall? Does this -300bb put you in the red?

[Red_Diamond]

Well, I have had many different accounts, on many different sites, on many different networks, and many different stakes, etc.

So.......

I decided to take some accounts from different skins but on the same network, and pool hands together for the particular game structure in question. This will help eliminate a lot of NOISE in the data.

I ended up using the alias feature in PT for this, and that was the first time I've done it. Now I'm glad you asked, since it forced me to do something new again.

From the last 23,251 hands I've played in that game, I am 0.77 BB/100 in the red. So yes, it definitely looks like this downswing is enough to make me a losing player after all in this field. But I have to admit, I wasn't a Stud winning God either. But I was proud of the fact I was in the black at such a high-ante game. I was thinking I was doing SOMETHING RIGHT! LOL

I suppose, I should maybe do some complex graphing next or something.

[BlueSmurf]

Hey RD

Sorry to hear about your troubles. Can I ask what limits you play?

Cheers,

Smurf

[PoorLawyer]

With all the skins, etc. it sounds like you play at crypto...they love soap operas there (or did pre-US ban) and accusing everyone of cheating. I wouldn't read anything into the table talk.

Now that you have realized you can pool your hands, take away the last two weeks of downswing...were you a winning player for the previous 22K hands (or however many) overall?

[Poker CPA]

Red

1. Collusion is a fact of life at crypto. Your only defense is to report it, so do it.

2. 23K @ .77 BB is nothing, from a stat standpoint. Therefore it appears the problem is financing. You need a bankroll.

3. Triple tabling demands a solid mental approach. Dial down to two tables, or better yet, move up in class and play one table. At this site you play where the fish are. Use PT and only play the good tables, if none are available then move on to another site, PS or FTP. I think you are fooling yourself. I seriously don't know how you beat the low limit tables at the cryto pond.

4. Do some testing with your PT data. Review your winning % for PPs. These are a very consistent %s over the long haul. They will give you a clue as to your ST luck. Do a "before and after" comparison. In addition check for "rolled hands" over these swings. IMO they contribute 30% of your profit overall. Maybe the "rollies" are just not arriving as they should be, and if they are, you are not cashing.

5. The "10s full boat" post. Horrible poker.

6. Table selection is the game, whether 2/4 or 100/200. Find the right game, hell thats what PT is for.

[Red_Diamond]

Ok I'm back after another day. Good and bad news.

Bad news first... I had yet ANOTHER losing session at the 1-2 table. To make it worse, I was yet again vs the worst donkeys in the world. Typical example from when I first sat down. I find AA, so I raise to isolate the BI. The the with a queen decides to raise me. No, not because he has 2 queens, just because he wants to TEST me if I really have what I'm saying. Then the guy behind him has a 3 flush (or is it a 2-flush even, and he decides to raise again since he's obvious to hit a flush. And of course the donk behind HIM has something like 2-5-7 rainbow, and decides to jump in because he feels he has so much equity with all that straight potential!

4'th street one guy catches a suited ace, and two others pair their door cards, and then I'm faced with an almost capped bet again by the time it gets to me, (how the hell do you play that?)

The 1-2 average pot size was more than DOUBLE the 2-4 stud tables this evening. So yes, if you want a juicy roller-coaster ride, it's right up your alley, but sure hurts when you keep falling off.

And now.. for the good news. I got so tired of losing, I decided what the hell, I'd take some of the advice and try the 2-4 tables (how much more can I possibly lose?) Well, ironically I actually made a profit there today. So, technically I ended the day with an up-session over-all.

I just don't understand it. I'm playing vs more calibre players, and here I found it very easy. It was obvious who the rock was, who the two solid players where.. who was the tricky one, and the calling stations. Of course, I had the advantage in that the new faces didn't know me. I could be underestimating them, and find out next session that they've got a line on my play, who knows. Or maybe I'm just uber paranoid about higher calibre players.

A big difference is the ante is only 1/4 the BI, instead of the rediculous 1/2. So I did tighten up a bit there without having to worry about Broomcorn's Uncle.

I'll still go over some more stats of this later. Actually one issue that buggers up some data is my time doesn't quite match the time on the actual servers. So when I compare my winnings for (my day) in excel and log them, they don't really co-incide with PT stats. But I guess it's no big deal for now, and I know there's some option to modify this in pt.

I'll post some hand histories later on as I actually found myself in a few strange spots.

P.S. One thing that surprised me, not one negative comment was mentioned in the 2-4 tables. While the 1-2 tables never failed to repeat the "You rivering 'F*****!!' & "B1TCH!"

[Red_Diamond]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry to hear about your troubles. Can I ask what limits you play?


[/ QUOTE ]

Smurf, incase you missed it, this bad run is for the 1-2 high-ante tables.

CPA, I have looked at the rolled up stats for the last 23,471 hands and I have..

AAA only 1 win out of 3, for a net of 0.6BB a hand!

KKK 2 wins out of 3, 2.58 BB/h

QQQ 3 of 3, 8.67 BB/h

JJJ 3 of 3, 7.89 BB/h

TTT 6 of 7, 7.53 BB/h

999 4 of 4, 7.01 BB/h

888 3 of 5, 0.38 BB/h

777 4 of 4, 9.47 BB/h

666 1 of 1, 5.63 BB/h

555 4 of 5, 1.93 BB/h

444 5 of 8, 6.60 BB/h

333 1 of 3, -0.75 BB/h

222 5 of 5, 8.39 BB/h


Looks like I have a deficite of AAA & KKK hands? :P