Okay back to basics, AK Hand (200 NL 6MAX)

[SharkSandwich]

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Also, shoving allows him to play correctly

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This doesn't really matter if it's still likely that we have the best hand. I just shove.

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Man, what's with the simplification of strategy to this level?

It DOES matter. It's not just "do we have the best hand?". If you want to play a situation optimally you can't just distill a strategy down to "push 'cos we probably have the best hand."

That really is super-basic thinking. And optimal poker is not that simple.

In this spot we DO have to consider what money we can get in if opponent has an underpair. And how do we get it in best.
And how to get the money in best if opponent has a weaker Ace.

Then, at very minimum, weigh up those strategies and determine which play is likely to be the most profitable.

"I'm prolly good so I shove" just does not get it done.

[djj6835]

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Also, shoving allows him to play correctly


[/ QUOTE ] This doesn't really matter if it's still likely that we have the best hand. I just shove.


[/ QUOTE ] Man, what's with the simplification of strategy to this level?

It DOES matter. It's not just "do we have the best hand". If you want to play a situation optimally you can't just distill a strategy down to "push 'cos we probably have the best hand."

That really is super-basic thinking. And optimal poker is not that simple.

In this spot we DO have to consider what money we can get in if opponent has an underpair. And how do we get it in best.
And how to get the money in best if opponent has a weaker Ace.

Then, at very minimum, weigh up those strategies and determine which play is likely to be the most profitable.

"I'm prolly good so I shove" just does not get it done.

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I guess I wasn't really clear. I was just saying villain could "play correctly" here and it really isn't bad for us. If villain has AQ and we shove the flop I think he is correct to call.

I agree with what another post said earlier. This is likely a spot where villain is either willing to put all his chips in on the flop, or he isn't planning on putting another cent in. If that's the case we might as well shove the flop so as to not allow him to suddenly want to fold a hand on the turn that he pays off with on the flop.

In regards to your question about winning money from an underpair, then we need to shove. I don't see any other way of getting an undepair to pay off here since we are also likely shoving the flop with a draw as well as a made hand.

[Fletcher19]

shoving would most likely get villain off TT,JJ,QQ,KK. If we call the flop we give him another opportunity to take the pot, that potential extra value will more than compensate for the times he 2 outers us.

the flush draw is almost a non issue, Ah is on the board which makes it very unlikely that he has two hearts in his hand (KQ? maybe?) and getting backdoored is like a 1 in 25 shot so again, the extra value we get when he takes another stab at the pot makes this +EV IMO


Edit: As far as the weaker ace goes, surely if villain is going to call a flop shove with AQ/AJ the he would also call the same shove on the turn/river if he doesn't give us any action.

Sorry, i just realised i haven't articulated my points particularily well, please excuse me, it is just that i am very very tired [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[djj6835]

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hoving would most likely get villain off TT,JJ,QQ,KK. If we call the flop we give him another opportunity to take the pot, that potential extra value will more than compensate for the times he 2 outers us.

the flush draw is almost a non issue, Ah is on the board which makes it very unlikely that he has two hearts in his hand (KQ? maybe?) and getting backdoored is like a 1 in 25 shot so again, the extra value we get when he takes another stab at the pot makes this +EV IMO

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I would be much more surpised to see any of those hands put any more money in the pot if we call the flop than I would if we shove the flop.

[aislephive]

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shoving would most likely get villain off TT,JJ,QQ,KK. If we call the flop we give him another opportunity to take the pot, that potential extra value will more than compensate for the times he 2 outers us.

the flush draw is almost a non issue, Ah is on the board which makes it very unlikely that he has two hearts in his hand (KQ? maybe?) and getting backdoored is like a 1 in 25 shot so again, the extra value we get when he takes another stab at the pot makes this +EV IMO

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You think TT-KK is going to turn their hand into a bluff or something? That's pretty unlikely at this level, so calling against those hands IMO can only hurt us when he hits his 2 outer. Also, a shove might get looked up by KK/QQ putting you on a FD. You can't really bluff the flop by calling, but you can bluff by raising, if that makes sense.

[SharkSandwich]

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I guess I wasn't really clear. I was just saying villain could "play correctly" here and it really isn't bad for us. If villain has AQ and we shove the flop I think he is correct to call.

I agree with what another post said earlier. This is likely

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Right. That's better.

If villain does call the shove with AQ (AJ all the better) then I think shoving the flop is the best play. He has to put us on the flush draw ideally though.

If he has an underpair he's probably going to fold. (unless he'll throw away money because he wants to put you on the flush draw and call).

If he has an underpair but we can get quite a bit of value out of him after calling the flop then I think there's good value in calling.

It really comes down to weighing:
A. Chance Villain calls push with AQ(J)
versus
B. Chance Villain puts in more money Turn/River with an underpair (if he checks will he bet/call).

<font color="red">Overall I think A &gt; B because</font>
A = Winning his whole stack (when he doesn't outdraw).
B = Winning moderate value because he'll only call decent value bets he'll be able to call.

Pushing is the right move if we believe he'll call with a worse Ace a good percentage of the time.

[EddieRooo]

Again, do you think his stack isnt going in with AQ on the turn??

[djj6835]

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Right. That's better.

If villain does call the shove with AQ (AJ all the better) then I think shoving the flop is the best play. He has to put us on the flush draw, which is cool.

If he has an underpair he's probably going to fold. (unless he'll throw away money because he wants to put you on the flush draw and call).

If he has an underpair but we can get quite a bit of value out of him after calling the flop then I think there's good value in calling.

It really comes down to weighing:
A. Chance Villain calls push with AQ(J)
versus
B. Chance Villain puts in more money Turn/River with an underpair (if he checks will he bet/call).

Overall I think A &gt; B because
A = Winning his whole stack (when he doesn't outdraw).
B = Winning moderate value because he'll only call decent value bets he'll be able to call.

Pushing is the right move if we believe he'll call with a worse Ace a good percentage of the time.

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Read my post above or what aislephive posted as to why I think you get more value from underpairs by shoving.

Our perceived range for the shoving the flop is actually much wider than our range for just calling the flop.

If we shove we could have an ace, we could have a draw, or we could have complete air.

If we call we are basically saying I have an ace or an underpair. As a result villain isn't likely to put anymore money in the pot with their undepair because they are either turning their hand into a bluff or likely paying off an ace or better underpair.

[SharkSandwich]

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Again, do you think his stack isnt going in with AQ on the turn??

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That's an issue, and it probably is.

But the point could be why wait until the Turn if we can get him to put his money in on the flop with it?

I'll tell you reasons why not to wait.
1. If a third heart hits the Turn and you put him in he can fold without a heart. (I haven't worked out stacks here, but I think it'll apply).
It can certainly kill your action (what are you calling him on the flop with that doesn't beat him now?)
2. If a heart hits the Turn and he has one then we're getting in the money way less of a favourite than we are on the flop. He'll have 12 outs.
3. Less likely but if a Queen (and possibly even Jack) hits the Turn we still end up putting all the money in and could be drawing to 3 outs, or drawing dead.
He just needs AQ/AJ/QQ/JJ. Which is exactly the range of hands he has.
A QJ will hit the Turn about 1 in 7 here.

<font color="red">So on the Turn a Heart, a Q, maybe J, (and even K) put us in a much more complicated, and less favourable, position than we are on the flop.</font>

So if we can get the money in against AQ on the flop get it in on the flop.

[Fletcher19]

i find it hard to believe we get looked up by KK/QQ on that flop because they have us on a FD. Do they put us on KhQh? anything less than that is in few players 3bet range and even that can be considered marginal.

As played, if we check behind turn and value bet the river we have a reasonable chance of getting looked up KK/QQ IMO

I really need to sleep now, gn all