ye olde preflop checkup

[bdaddy]

this is an extremely easy/standard raise for value vs UTG's(and most random live players) limping range.

[bdaddy]

interesting Babar, because I think the aggro nature of online(i.e getting 3 bet by A10s AJS etc) would lean more toward call vs live where players have MUCH MUCH tighter 3 bet/cap ranges

[BadBigBabar]

well yea it depends on reads. if it's a loose aggressive like 24/17 guy 3betting or 4betting i take that into account way differently than if it's a 13/9 tight aggressive guy. your live reads make it sounds like these guys' ranges have your range crushed.

[fishyak]

Disclaimer: I'm not ready for 30 play yet either. But I thought I could take a stab at the "mathy" side of things which if we stick to the reads for guidance, should keep me (us) in line.

With this PF action our hand is best for flushes and str8's. We are probably dominated otherwise and some of our outs are out already. 2 of a suit PF hit the flush 6% of the time. One gap str8's even less. The value of K & J as high cards are questionable. So while it is a rough estimate, needing 10:1 to call looks about right.

On the calling side, if this flop doesn't hit you in face, instant el foldo. And that probably means you need to hit at least 2 to the flush, because if you aren't open ended on the str8 draw after the flop, it would be hard to proceed, especially facing any raises.

On balance, I think it would be smart to let this one go and fold it. Your odds are close to good to call PF, but your reads place you behind to more than one player.

So often we talk about our reads and then don't act on them. I agree with your view of live 3 bet and cap ranges.
I suggest reacting accordingly and folding.

[ssmallz]

easy call. aside from the reasons stated its not good for your metagame to be folding hands you raise pf

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
easy call. aside from the reasons stated its not good for your metagame to be folding hands you raise pf

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you're not making a blanket statement about any and all hands you initially raise pre-flop. Extreme example: Let's suppose you are in a 5-bet cap game and you open raise hijack with KJo and it comes around 3 more to you. You?

Garland

[BadBigBabar]

garland why do you even post that - you already know the answer

[bdaddy]

here are the stove results, fwiw:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 10.509% 10.03% 00.47% 1753918358 82961638.87 { KJs }
Hand 1: 14.589% 14.46% 00.13% 2527829866 22303212.53 { JJ+ }
Hand 2: 50.744% 50.38% 00.37% 8805795323 64053862.03 { QQ+ }
Hand 3: 13.285% 12.81% 00.48% 2238499596 83598285.70 { 77-33, ATs-A6s, KJs-K9s, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 4: 10.873% 10.25% 00.62% 1791776721 108789200.87 { 44+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, A2o+, KJo+, QJo }

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
garland why do you even post that - you already know the answer

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
aside from the reasons stated its not good for your metagame to be folding hands you raise pf

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of the "meta-game" comment. I'm pretty sure ssmallz knows the answer too, but really, is "meta-game" that important in this day and age? Honestly, it's the first time I've encountered that word in a couple of years in a limit forum.

Garland

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
here are the stove results, fwiw:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 10.509% 10.03% 00.47% 1753918358 82961638.87 { KJs }
Hand 1: 14.589% 14.46% 00.13% 2527829866 22303212.53 { JJ+ }
Hand 2: 50.744% 50.38% 00.37% 8805795323 64053862.03 { QQ+ }
Hand 3: 13.285% 12.81% 00.48% 2238499596 83598285.70 { 77-33, ATs-A6s, KJs-K9s, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 4: 10.873% 10.25% 00.62% 1791776721 108789200.87 { 44+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, A2o+, KJo+, QJo }

[/ QUOTE ]

You messed up the stove, dude. Typcial live player [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
1. you have khjh, not kjs. doesn't matter much here.
2. you did something very wrong--did you notice that {JJ+} only has 14% equity here lol?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

396,114 games 51.180 secs 7,739 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.675% 33.28% 01.41% 131818 5600.73 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 26.586% 25.15% 01.45% 99637 5727.07 { JJ+ }
Hand 2: 13.873% 13.29% 00.59% 52645 2336.23 { 44+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, A2o+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 3: 13.118% 12.61% 00.51% 49963 2025.90 { 77-33, ATs-A6s, KJs-K9s, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 4: 11.748% 11.21% 00.54% 44418 2143.07 { KhJh }


Interesting to see just how crappy having kj vs. two opponents with jj+ and qq+ is. if you make it jts it's an easy call getting 14% equity.