exact of odds of this happening again

[Jared511]

The other day my friend and I were playing in a 1-2NL game in Atlantic City. We saw the following happen.

Guy flopped quads with pocket 3's. Very next hand he turns quads with pocket kings, and loses that hand to a royal flush. I am wondering what the specific odds would be that we would ever see that happen again. Same guy gets quads back to back, and loses with the 2nd one to a royal flush. Any ideas? more than 1 in a billion I would guess?


Thanks
Jared

[oddsock]

How many players at the table?

[jay_shark]

I posted an answer already which is good enough .

If you want to be exact , you have to estimate the probability that each player will play a s.c which is purely subjective . What were his exact two hole cards ?

[Jared511]

I was curious on the math on the whole subject. He had 3c3s on the one hand that he won and flopped quads. He had KhKc on the hand he lost quads. Other guy had AsQs on that hand.

[Jared511]

And it was a full table. 10 players.

[sickofants]

[ QUOTE ]
I posted an answer already which is good enough .

If you want to be exact , you have to estimate the probability that each player will play a s.c which is purely subjective . What were his exact two hole cards ?

[/ QUOTE ]
To elaborate on this, nobody can give you the exact odds. If he plays KK correctly (ie. he raises) then suited paint shouldn't be seeing the flop all too often anyway apart from AKs & AQs. You can immediately eliminate AKs because all the kings are used elsewhere. So you need the probability that a player is dealt AQs and the probability that the action is condusive with that player getting to the flop (which depends upon how this player plays, how the other players play and what the other players hold).

You could work out the probability that the event you described happens given that every player gets to the river and it would still be a very unlikely event. In reality though, this would be meaningless as the true probability will be even smaller.

[Jared511]

Well I didn't really want to get into the odds that deeply, however I think in a 1-2NL game it is pretty common that someone raises with KhKd and someone would call with suited As-Qs. The flop was Ks-10s-3, AQ bet out, KK raised. AQ called. Turn K, check , check. River Js for the royal flush.

Basically I was looking at the math this way, again I am not a statisical or probablility major by any means.

(Odds of getting dealt a pocket pair * odds of flopping quads, to get the probability for the first occurence.)

multiplied by

(odds of getting dealt a pocket pair * odds of flopping a set * odds of turning quads)

(odds of getting dealt two cards that are suited and can make a royal flush * getting two of those royals on the flop * 1 of them on the river)

and then multiple all those results together?

But the real basic question is the aproximate odds of ever seeing someone getting back to back quads, and losing to a royal with one of them.

Obviously it will more than likely never happen again but my friend and I have different beliefs in the odds. I think its more like 1 in 100 billion or so, and he feels its much more likely than that. So really this question is for someone who wants to show off their intellect and can give me an answer lol.


Thanks!

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously it will more than likely never happen again but my friend and I have different beliefs in the odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Happen again? What amazes is not the rarity, but the frequency of these type of contests.

[Jared511]

Well I apologize if this question isn't something you want to answer Sheet. You can easily move on to another post if you don't want to give an educated answer

[oddsock]

Hitting quads by the river twice in a row and the second time coming up against a royal flush - about 1 in 1.217 billion. Assuming the 9 players at the table on the second hand stay to the river "looking" for the royal. I'm not taking into account how the quads/royal was hit - just the fact they were hit.