Anytime there is money in the pot should you shove for 50/50?

[CobraGoat]

say midstages of $10 freezeout MT.

blinds 100/200

Hero- 4500
SB and BB both have similar stacks.

Hero attempts to steal (raise to 600) from CO with J9 clubs.

Button folds but both blinds call...pot= 1800.

Flop: Qc 8h 6c

SB leads for pot, BB folds. For this example you can see villains cards and he has either: AQ or KQ.

So you're equity in the pot is a hair below 50%, (51.5%/48.5%) a little more if he has either the Ac or Kc. Obvs you have 0 fold equity but this is a must shove correct? Given the 3600 in the pot already, correct?

This is a pretty easy example but I feel I am presently reevaluating a lot of spots where in the past I have typically autofolded but given the money in pot + my equity, I probably should have called.

Obviously your pot equity is based on villains likely range of hands under the circumstances and thus you should err on the more conservative side of estimating what your likely equity really is. Anyway, this realization (as elementary as it may be) is likely going to turn me into a suckout monster until im able to better discern which spots are appropriate for getting all in with the likely worst of it.

Actually this is so basic im almost embarrassed to post it but whatever, maybe it will help crystalize an important concept for the new guys on this forum.

[Dunkman]

I didn't really completely follow the math, but I'm assuming you mean taking a slightly -cEV gamble in order to get some chips? I think this is a pretty good spot for that, you're getting short, it's only getting worse, and winning this pot would put you in a great spot to put your chips to work and really start building a nice stack, instead of just limping along hoping for a big hand.

In this case, it is most definitely not a -cEV gamble. Against a range of AQ KQ you are 46.8% to win, and given the dead money in the pot this is easily a +EV shove.

edit: I'm bored so I'll do a little more math. You are a 1.14:1 underdog here. On the flop you would be shoving 3900 to win 1800+1800+2100, or 5700. So, the shove is offering you 1.46:1, which makes it a huge +EV play.

[Sherman]

Not quite Dunk.

By calling here we aren't -cEV. We are +cEV b/c of the extra "dead money" in the pot.

The short answer is yes. You should call. The biggest pots in poker are (or at least theoretically should be) the pots in which both players are mathematically +EV to get it all-in. This is the case here.

Sherman

[Dunkman]

[ QUOTE ]
Not quite Dunk.

By calling here we aren't -cEV. We are +cEV b/c of the extra "dead money" in the pot.

The short answer is yes. You should call. The biggest pots in poker are (or at least theoretically should be) the pots in which both players are mathematically +EV to get it all-in. This is the case here.

Sherman

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I assumed initially that's what he was asking then just didn't give a good example. Obviously you should get it in here when the +EV is huge.

[umistboy]

In the case that we are a dead on 50/50 then yes this is mathematically correct due to the dead money.

Some questions:

when are we dead-on 50/50?
How do we know for sure that we are 50/50?
How much extra money do we need knowing that a "coin-flip" is often someone being 45-55 behind?

I suppose we can only use ranges as a guide.

[ssnyc]

if one of the villans had AQ I think you would have heard pre...If you want to play this hand you have to go all the way with this flop...simple question...simple answer

[BarryLyndon]

Easy push here, there is already too much money in the pot to let this go. Also, it's not ENTIRELY impossible given your LP raise that villain is leading with A8 (very small chance) and it is very possible he's leading with JQ but may fold it. No way he is folding KQ, but the size of the pot already took care of your concerns.

Oh yeah, I'd be pushing AQ here PF in the BB all [censored] night. Maybe he will be too, so you can take that one out of his range (or at least cut it in half).

So, you are not exactly shoving for a "50/50" here. In general, you are rarely EVER shoving for "50/50" because you have to assume some FE on several boards. Sometimes more than you think. At 15/30, 3000 (or, say, 30/60 6000 against a 6000), I wouldn't shove for a "50/50" because that would be a gross overbet and I have about 40 or so minutes to play some poker and increase my stack other ways. At 1500, any blinds and usual structure, I'm gonna try to get my money in under the assumption that I have some FE.

Barry