OT: Does your arrogance hurt your results?

[bumpking]

I know that the 10 billion promo is making the regulars play more than ever, but why don't these guys table profile?

I play the $55-$210 SNG's and can't believe how many of the tables have all 9 spots taken by regulars. If you're one of these regulars (bigjoe2003, River Prayer, ryanghall, deut23-10, Premier, Shankar825, DDBeast, hafizzle, the_rotter77, SamENole, thepiper777, Elky, mistermo, azntracker, sprstoner, Jorj95, Comma_D, scossett, GuiGui_88, johnnyv5000, hg18l7, spainsoccer, ShiP ThA $$$, Boku87, darinvg, xyz888, BB John, Blue Lipton, and many more), do you simply just think you're better than the others? (That's not meant to sound like a [censored])

Every single one of those players has results better than simply losing the rake (most are much better), so there isn't enough pie to go around. For example, for a $105+9 tourney, if everyone was equal they would all lose $9/tourney on average ($4.5/tourney if they're SN/SNE). We know that long term all these guys do much better than that, but for the tourneys where all 9 are regs, I can guarantee you that a few are gonna be losers long term, and I would suspect that 8-9 of them would lose long term (for those tourneys) since they're just splitting the same pie.

If you make $5/tourney on average, I would suspect that for SNG's where the majority of players are weak, you make more like $10-15/tourney. For tourney that are tight (like those mentioned above), I would suspect your results are more like -$10 to -$5/tourney. Just imagine if you cut out those bad ones and just kept the cream.

So, can anyone see flaws in my logic? Who here actually kicks out of tables or does not sit down (SNG's only please) because there are too many regulars? If you don't, what is your reasoning for playing with 8 other regs?

Just frustrated that I can't find any tables,

-BK

[Kevin8423]

Everyone SHOULD use table selection especially at that level, I would assume that they all are sitting together because not enough games are running to play otherwise.

[PokahGirl]

I play on PP but it's the same situation - I refuse to sit at a table with more than 2 good regulars...and I always make sure they're to my left (for sngs). I usually just open a ton of tables at once (I play 8-9) and snipe seats at the last minute next to the tightest guys. Sometimes I'll sit down and 5 more regulars will jump in and I just get out of the tourny; it can be kind of frustrating but I can be patient...they have to fill up eventually :P

[cougar62]

Just a thought, but if IYO you can't get a +EV game at the level you normally play for whatever reason, why not drop down, get a +EV game and rack up the FPP's? A +$2 EV game would beat a -$5EV game

[bumpking]

[ QUOTE ]
Just a thought, but if IYO you can't get a +EV game at the level you normally play for whatever reason, why not drop down, get a +EV game and rack up the FPP's? A +$2 EV game would beat a -$5EV game

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. That is what I do. I would love to 16-table the $210s, but I only play about 1 out of every 4 due to the high concentration of regs.

I would guess that the main reason the regs play with 8 other regs is that they register through the main lobby and don't bother looking to see who is seated. I think it is quite short-sighted as there hourly rate would go up substantially if they profiled. It's either ignorance because they don't realize this, or it's arrogance cuz they realize it but think they can beat the game.

Someone has to get lucky over a couple thousand tourneys. When it's your turn, you think you're invincible. The fact is with 8 other pros, you're not going to win long term. Elky and RainKhan are the latest 2 to prove it, and BigJoe hasn't been looking too good in his last 4,000 tourneys either. Variance is a bitch. Do what you can to minimize it by profiling and don't get sucked into thinking you're too good to bother with it when in reality you're probably just abnormally hot.

-BK

[bigj0e03]

if your the best in the world you dont care whos at the table.

[TheNoodleMan]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact is with 8 other pros, you're not going to win long term. Elky and RainKhan are the latest 2 to prove it, and BigJoe hasn't been looking too good in his last 4,000 tourneys either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you just compare bigjoe (one of the biggest winners on sharkscope) to elky and rainkhan (two massive losers on sharkscope)?

[Kevin8423]

[ QUOTE ]
if your the best in the world you dont care whos at the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think thats more due to the arrogance of being the best in the world and wanting to show it off. Clearly even the best in the world would fair better against a table of horrible players than a table of the the 2nd-9th best players in the world.

[IceMuncher]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The fact is with 8 other pros, you're not going to win long term. Elky and RainKhan are the latest 2 to prove it, and BigJoe hasn't been looking too good in his last 4,000 tourneys either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you just compare bigjoe (one of the biggest winners on sharkscope) to elky and rainkhan (two massive losers on sharkscope)?

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm pretty sure he meant that Elky and Rainkhan are big losers (he asserts this is due to table selection), and that Bigjoe hasn't looked too good for the last 4k tournaments(also due to table selection). So yes, he's saying Bigjoe = Rainkhan in every way. Very astute.

[bumpking]

[ QUOTE ]
Did you just compare bigjoe (one of the biggest winners on sharkscope) to elky and rainkhan (two massive losers on sharkscope)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Elky and Rainkhan were both doing very well (according to sharkscope), then finally had to hang em up when the games got tougher and variance caught up to them. Is it inconceivable that this could happen to BigJoe? His recent numbers aren't looking too good. Is he better than those guys? Yes, at least I definitely think so.

Here's my reply to DDBeast on why BigJoe isn't doing as great as everyone thinks:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...ue#Post10241783

Do you agree with that logic, or am I off base there?

-BK