($335) Interesting Bubble Decision

[DCJ311]

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t600 with t50 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t8550)
Hero (t1915)
SB (t1635)
BB (t1400)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Hero folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t1585 (All-in)</font>, BB calls t750 (All-in)

Flop: (t3435) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)


Turn: (t3435) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)


River: (t3435) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Obviously, the decision is simply a push if the stack sizes aren't set up this way. But given that the SB and BB have almost equal stacks, you have to figure the SB is going to be pushing here with most hands, and the BB will be calling.

Assuming the BB is calling with any 2, and assuming the SB is pushing at least 80% of hands, does that make this a correct fold?

Question 2: Assuming the fold is correct, what is the worst hand you'd push here given the above parameters?

Question 3: If the blinds are 200/400 what is your action above with the A5o?

[kevstreet]

Both scenarios look like clear pushes.

[Pasterbator]

This is definitely a push. So is the other example.

Giving the BB a walk here would be pretty nasty.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
This is definitely a push. So is the other example.

Giving the BB a walk here would be pretty nasty.

[/ QUOTE ]

is point is that the sb is almost always pushing... i'm not sure how true that is though

[FoldYourLife]

I really like this post, because I have never been fully comfortable in this type of spot. When there are two short stacks, I agree with generally staying out of the way if they are likely to get into a confrontation. That being said, I still push here, because A5 is too strong to fold. I'd push maybe 20% but I really don't know what is the correct answer. If the blinds were 200/400, it becomes an easy push, because BB is not committed to call any 2.

[Shillx]

I look for reasons to fold but worst case here is +0.4%. If you are on ATC it says that the BB should call ~90% of the time and that makes the worst case +0.7%. Folding is probably worth more then this but you shouldn't be pushing wide enough to make a 90% calling range +EV. The best calling range is like 50% or something and it is an easy push if he is only calling half the time. This spot is tough though b/c the BB should probably make a *bad* call as he is guarenteed a HU pot should he call here. I don't know how low I'd go but I certainly don't mind making a -0.5% EV call in this situation.

This looks like a trivial push but this is most complex push/fold post that I've seen in a long time. I *think* I'd push simply because of the chance that pushing is +2.0% or 3.0% but I don't know what is best.

[FoldYourLife]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is definitely a push. So is the other example.

Giving the BB a walk here would be pretty nasty.

[/ QUOTE ]

is point is that the sb is almost always pushing... i'm not sure how true that is though

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, SB's pushing range is very important.