Button with CO limper and JTs $4.40

[levAA]

i agree with halpgr

BB is a problem here as after posting he has only 4BB left and will come along with nearly every hand and the chance to triple up - so the OR gets the odds to call.

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
i agree with halpgr

BB is a problem here as after posting he has only 4BB left and will come along with nearly every hand and the chance to triple up - so the OR gets the odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no OR in this hand. There is a limper who is remarkably typical at this level - he has a stack, he's afraid of big pots because he wants to cash, he's limping a bunch with a plan to fold all his limps.

600+600+300 = 1500. So, even if BB calls your push, the extra 1500 in the pot (+ antes?) makes your gamble reasonable. And it's not guaranteed that he's gonna call. So you still have FE.

And, no, I would rather not push with A2o here because there is a more likely chance of you being up against A5s or A7 if there is a call than Q10.

[levAA]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no OR in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are right of course but i'm sure you know what i meant.

__________________________________________________ ______

i agree that you have FE here, but for me BB is a risk factor that complicates a steal. for me it's close but i think i would let this one go.

[4CardStraight]

I fold here.

Its pretty close. I really dont hate a push or anything. I think pushing is respectable. I just think its a thin fold. QJs is easy push, JTs... meh...

OK sure theres a lot of overlay, but that also makes your folding equity significantly less. 3 ways is a travesty.

Most people over value JTs. One reason why, is if we specifically select hands that do not dominate us, JTs always fares very well. Try it sometime, pick a 4 or 5 handed pot, AKo, JTs, 44, 77, KQs for instance JTs is over its 20% to win. another one thats pretty funny, JTs, vs A9o, vs 88 three ways. JTs is crushing, 39% of the equity, its way ahead. Another reason why is many players list it in the top 20 NL starting hands. It has incredible implied odds situations going for it. We make the nut straight a lot, we make solid flushes, and our one pairs are decent. We can extract a ton of money with nut straights, especially good boards like AKQ or KQ9 where we are highly likely to be up against a set, two pair, or TPTK and get paid. But as far as a all in equity play, JTs has major problems if we allow it the potential of domination. We simply dont make straights and flushes enough. If QJo can call us or QTo as listed, its a big problem.

Now.. put in ranges of hands instead. JTs vs top 25% were a 40/60 dog. JTs vs top 30%, still a dog. JTs vs 40% still a dog. get this JTs heads up vs top 50% hands... still a freaking dog. crazy but true. A2o really does face very similar domination problems, and I wouldnt say I would rather push A2o here than JTs, they are quite similar in strength against modestly broad ranges like top 20%. theres a lot of aces that dominate us just like theres a lot of broadway dominating our JTs.

Here we are likely to be called by any of the three positions with boradway hands, and we face major domination problems. QJs is ahead of top 40% and close enough to a top 25% range that the overlay makes it a much better push.

4card

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold here.

Its pretty close. I really dont hate a push or anything. I think pushing is respectable. I just think its a thin fold. QJs is easy push, JTs... meh...

OK sure theres a lot of overlay, but that also makes your folding equity significantly less. 3 ways is a travesty.

Most people over value JTs. One reason why, is if we specifically select hands that do not dominate us, JTs always fares very well. Try it sometime, pick a 4 or 5 handed pot, AKo, JTs, 44, 77, KQs for instance JTs is over its 20% to win. another one thats pretty funny, JTs, vs A9o, vs 88 three ways. JTs is crushing, 39% of the equity, its way ahead. Another reason why is many players list it in the top 20 NL starting hands. It has incredible implied odds situations going for it. We make the nut straight a lot, we make solid flushes, and our one pairs are decent. We can extract a ton of money with nut straights, especially good boards like AKQ or KQ9 where we are highly likely to be up against a set, two pair, or TPTK and get paid. But as far as a all in equity play, JTs has major problems if we allow it the potential of domination. We simply dont make straights and flushes enough. If QJo can call us or QTo as listed, its a big problem.

Now.. put in ranges of hands instead. JTs vs top 25% were a 40/60 dog. JTs vs top 30%, still a dog. JTs vs 40% still a dog. get this JTs heads up vs top 50% hands... still a freaking dog. crazy but true. A2o really does face very similar domination problems, and I wouldnt say I would rather push A2o here than JTs, they are quite similar in strength against modestly broad ranges like top 20%. theres a lot of aces that dominate us just like theres a lot of broadway dominating our JTs.

Here we are likely to be called by any of the three positions with boradway hands, and we face major domination problems. QJs is ahead of top 40% and close enough to a top 25% range that the overlay makes it a much better push.

4card

[/ QUOTE ]

4Card,

Your analysis is sound as always and if I had the same command as you did, I couldn't go to sleep with my head hurting every night (it really doesn't hurt). But, of those ranges that A2 fairs better against than JT, many of the hands that actually call crush A2, but not JT. Correct my thinking?

Barry

[4CardStraight]

I think they are exteremly close.

Against top 10%, 15% and 20% ranges, A2 and JTs are almost the same equity across the board. A2 getting slightly better as we go 20->25->35->50% and beyond, due to card removal effects of having an ace, and due to more and more hands like K2o-K8o being in the mix, where we are a slight favorite with A2o but still a dog with JTs. The more King and Queen high hands we add, the better A2 does in comparison with JTs.

So your point is that when QTo and K8o are in the mix that A2o fares better than JTs? If so, yeah thats true.. but against those broad ranges, both hands are still dogs. Are they sufficient dogs as to not warrant this push? Shrug, we are about 40-42% equity against a hand range like top 20-25%. But if our opponents are calling that much, then we really dont have much Fold equity, theres 3 of them, and odds are decent one has a hand that big... we only have the two big stacks to worry about, BB might go along for the ride, broadening their ranges, but we might be ahead of BB's range... its tough to get the math exactly right. Assume we are just heads up against a likely caller here that has us outstacked. We will be 40% equity in a 17900 pot which is minus 1100 or so, we steal the blinds maybe half the time which gives us positive 800.. that nets to a thin negative ev of like 300 chips assuming no premium to our chip stack (and we should assign ours a premium because we have a decent sized stack here). (im saying we are called by a 25% hand range by one of the bigger stacks half the time, and the other half we steal, and that nets to thinly negative EV, and a decently negative ev if we give our stacks a small premium).... To compare with QJs, again assuming top 25% calls us, we are now only a 45% dog, nets us minus a hundred chips or so on average from beign called, and plus 750 or so from fold equity, so were + to the tune of 650 chips or so, enough that is about equal to a thin 5-10% premium we might put on our current stack.

I am shortcutting the fact that we have a BB that might go along for the ride with total trash, and it does matter.. it gives JTs another notch down, cause JTs is a dog against top 40-50%, and he may go along that wide, and QJs is favored against that broad, so it gives that hand a premium.. the same thing happens with A2o, the BB may well go along with almost any king, and that gives our A2 an additional edge over jts.

A2o is worse than JTs against an ultra tight range (top 4% and the like) about the same against modest ranges (10% to 25%), and better against broad ranges (35% and beyond).

HTH

4Card