MyTurn's NFL picks

[MyTurn2Raise]

First time seriously betting NFL in which I'm sure I'm a long-term loser.

However, I've put together a new model and analysis that I think might win some dollers.

Trust it at your peril


*NOTE: I cannot even beat NCAAF this year after all the time and effort I put into it....what makes anyone think I can beat the NFL?


well, let's begin

all plays for one unit

Jacksonville +3.5 -110 5dimes
San Francisco +9.5 +106 matchbook
Dolphins +3 +105 Bodog

[Thremp]

Hrm... No WA lines?

Will this be a glimpse into what an actual ROI could be like?

[MyTurn2Raise]

Why Jacksonville?

Well, many are looking at their awful run defense (that many yards v Tennessee and Atlanta!) and Denver's good rush offense and thinking Denver will have its way.

NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND

Jacksonville has mastered the bend, don't break defense. They lull opponents into running for short gains, but step up and take away the big play. They've only allowed 10 ppg. The Jags are second in the league in pass yardage allowed and have yet to give up a 40+ yard pass play or a passing TD.
Denver, so far this year, is tied for second in 20+ and 40+ yard runs. They are 4th in rushing attempts and fifth in yards per carry.

Look for Denver to eat up chunks on the ground, but never get to the endzone as the JAGS bend, don't break traps another hapless opponent.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
Hrm... No WA lines?

Will this be a glimpse into what an actual ROI could be like?

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt I can beat the best lines...GMAFB trying to beat WA

[MyTurn2Raise]

Why San Francisco?

Most important, similar to Penn St, we don't know what to expect from Pittsburgh in a real contest. They've had some sleep-walkers so far @ Cleveland and v Buffalo. However, San Fran has had to slug it out (20-17 v Arizona and 17-16 @ St. Louis) and will have the edge when it becomes clutch time.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Why Miami?

Well, neither the Jets nor the Dolphins can run, so we'll see lots of 3rd and longs. So far, neither pass offense has lit it on fire either. It comes down to which pass defense will make the big plays. I have to like Miami here as they have 3 sacks to New York's zero! In addition, the Jets have given up 9 sacks already. Miami gets the edge as they get to the QB more and create the HUGE play.

[MacGuyV]

I kinda hate the 49ers-Steelers analysis. I don't really expect it to be that close in the 4th Qtr but if it is I don't see why a seasoned team like Pit is going to choke on themselves. IMO any team that relies on their running game like SF does is a bad matchup against the Steelers.

Miami will have the best pass-rusher on the field but that's the case for most games they play - the Jets have the better secondary & passing game.

Hope I don't sound like a prick, G/L

[iggymcfly]

I don't see a group NFL thread anywhere, so I'm going to steal yours to post my plays:

YTD 4-2, +2.84 units
Indianapolis at Houston +6.5 (Risk 1.5u to win 1.545u)
Carolina at Atlanta +3.5 (Risk 1u to win 1.06u)
Tennessee +4 at New Orleans (Risk 1.5u to win 1.5u)

My NFL picks are based on the simplest "fade the public" analysis possible. The only game where I put my own handicapping in at all was the MNF game, because Tennessee's covered a ridiculous amount the last 10 games or so going back to last season and the AFC seems clearly better than the NFC thus far. In addition, I'll take an under on the MNF game close to kickoff since the Bush/Young hype should have the squares pushing the total up even higher than normal. That will probably be a 2 unit play.

BTW, in general I do like your picks MyTurn. Jax and SF both seem to be getting a couple more points than they should due to early-season performance and as a Jets fan, I really don't see them winning this week. I also think Pennington's undervalued and the Jets will miss him if he doesn't play which I don't think he will even though he's only questionable.

[statsman]

[ QUOTE ]
I've put together a new model and analysis that I think might win some dollers.


[/ QUOTE ]
Myturn I am interested in hearing what factors are lying on your analysis. Is it data driven, intuition driven, or a little of both?

[whatifbets]

I also picked MIA+3.
Also - BAL-7.5