Steelers - 49ers

[CarlSpackler]

I'm really liking the Steelers at home, -8.5 vs. the 49ers. Pit is the one elite team that has flown way under the radar -- everyone in the preseason was like "will indy repeat?" "the pats are loading up for the super bowl," "can san diego get over the hump?" "the ravens might be the most complete team in the nfl," are just some of the common themes I've heard among the media and fans. Meanwhile there's no mention of the Steelers, who were super bowl champs the year before last and 15-1 the previous season before that.

A lot of things went wrong for Pit last year, most notably Big Ben's injury issues and subpar performance. Well, so far Big Ben looks great, and the team appears rejuvenated under their new head coach. Meanwhile Alex Smith has looked extremely erratic early, and lets not forget this kid is the same age as guys in college like Colt Brennan, and still very green. A trip to Pit against their nasty defense does not appear to be a good spot for him to start playing well. SF's only reliable offense right now is Gore, and I expect Pit to contain him for the most part.

I think the 49ers are quasi-fool's gold right now. They're 2-0, but could of easily lost each of their first 2 games, which were both decided in the final seconds. Granted, SF may be good enough to win the horrendous nfc west, but they are simply not on the Steeler's level talent wise, or statistically. What would the line be if Arizona recovers the fumble in the endzone in week 1, and/or Wilkins makes the game winning fg last week? It would certainly be double digits.

There's a lot more value in the Steelers line than the Indy or SD lines, which are similar matchups, imo. When adjusted for hfa: Indy -9.5, SD -8, Pit -5.5. Realistically, I think the Steelers should be favored by at least 10.5, and probably 11.

Finally, I'm also liking what I hear from squares regarding the matchup. It's mostly "how can the Steelers be favored by 8.5 over a 2-0 team?" which is music to my ears. Also, it doesn't hurt that SF is on the road for the 2nd consecutive week, and this time they have to to fly completely across the country for an early noon game.

Btw, this also qualifies as a wong teaser, although I currently see nothing else available that I could tease this game with.


Fwiw, my ytd nfl record: 2-3-2 on sides/totals, 1-0 wong teasers, -.42 units to date. The only games I posted in the forum were NYJ week 1, and a 3 team wong in week 1. My others which I haven't posted until now were -- week 1: Indy under, Philly, Was; week 2: SF, Det, Chi. But you have no reason to believe I actually made these plays as I could be totally lying, trying to impress everyone here with my 2-2-2 record in my other nfl games played this season.

[Patton4]

The loss of Manny Lawson really hurts the Niners... Pitt looks like a really good bet now. I think the Niners are going to have trouble regrouping on the road from such a devastating injury to their defense.

[flavius]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the 49ers are quasi-fool's gold right now. They're 2-0, but could of easily lost each of their first 2 games, which were both decided in the final seconds. Granted, SF may be good enough to win the horrendous nfc west, but they are simply not on the Steeler's level talent wise, or statistically. What would the line be if Arizona recovers the fumble in the endzone in week 1, and/or Wilkins makes the game winning fg last week? It would certainly be double digits.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yea but the niners defense is drastically improved and thats why the games above were close. Their CB tandem could easily shutdown Pitts WRs. Ive seen some sites rank their CB tandem as top 3 in the NFL. Niners are most likely going to lose this game but their defense is very capable of making it a close game.

[Murphinator]

This is not going to be a close game. I'll be amazed if Niners score more than 10 points and I'll also be amazed if the Steelers don't score at least 20.

The Niners barely beat Arizona and the Rams. They could easily be 0-2 right now while having played terrible teams. I'm on Pit -9.

[flavius]

St louis offense has been better than Pitts the past three years. Arizonas isnt too bad either. If the niners can hold the score down with them why should Pitt score easily? I would keep in mind that Pitt beat up on two weak teams this year.

[CarlSpackler]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the 49ers are quasi-fool's gold right now. They're 2-0, but could of easily lost each of their first 2 games, which were both decided in the final seconds. Granted, SF may be good enough to win the horrendous nfc west, but they are simply not on the Steeler's level talent wise, or statistically. What would the line be if Arizona recovers the fumble in the endzone in week 1, and/or Wilkins makes the game winning fg last week? It would certainly be double digits.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yea but the niners defense is drastically improved and thats why the games above were close. Their CB tandem could easily shutdown Pitts WRs. Ive seen some sites rank their CB tandem as top 3 in the NFL. Niners are most likely going to lose this game but their defense is very capable of making it a close game.

[/ QUOTE ]

No doubt SF's defense is good and the main reason that they are 2-0. That being said, the Rams put up nearly 400 yards of total offense last week vs. SF, and that's with their crippled oline. I'll be shocked if Pit allows 6 sacks this week, which is what SF got last week. Their defense pressured Bulger all day. The Steelers offense is a very good balanced attack with a solid oline, capable of spreading the field with 3 and 4 wr sets, and I expect them to be able to protect Big Ben for the most part, and move the ball well. Don't forget Big Ben has underrated mobility too, which should also help him avoid the pass rush. The big key for Pit will be scoring td's in the red zone which is something they didn't do well last week.

SF's defense should be under a tremendous amount of pressure all day, as I expect the Steeler's defense to shut down SF's offense for the most part, which should leave Pit w/ good field position for most of the game. Pit is also the favorite to win the turnover battle this game, imo, as I believe Alex Smith will be forced into a mistake or 2.

[billygrippo]

i have the steelers going to the super bowl

[Murphinator]

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St louis offense has been better than Pitts the past three years.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does that have to do with this game? It's pretty obvious the Rams aren't playin like they have the past 3 years.

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Arizonas isnt too bad either.

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If they weren't that bad then they would've beaten SF.

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I would keep in mind that Pitt beat up on two weak teams this year.

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Yep, and they'll have beat up on 3 weak teams after this Sunday.

[zOrO2k6]

49ers +9.5, Easy Money.

[Limpfold]

Did you decide to abandon your strategy of not posting picks? I just read blabla blabla, easy money in 3 different threads.
Personally I think your original idea was very good.

Edit: Make that 6 different threads..