Variance

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Has anyone done any work on determine how normally distributed winrates are? I'm wondering if the fat-tail phenomenon applies here. Sure seems like a plausible explanation.

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I thought i would provide a link from the archives that is in my bookmarks that addresses this issue...

variance winrates and expectation

beachbum's post towards the end of the thread is quite relevant...

Also ggbman, there are several ways of calculating risk of ruin; do you know which method that calculator site uses ? this calculation varies alot depending on what variables you focus on and the one you link to may be very different to the one dean uses...