AQ against scary board

[drzen]

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You played it backwards. I would call the flop and then raise the turn. As played I would certianly bet the turn.

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You're one of the posters I respect most, so I'm interested with this. I thought my flop raise would fold CO with a single small club or some other weaker draw. Why just call?

Thanks to you and others for kicking my arse over the turn. I felt it was weak when the hand was over.

[Fadook]

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You're one of the posters I respect most, so I'm interested with this. I thought my flop raise would fold CO with a single small club or some other weaker draw. Why just call

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I'm no Shillx and would probably have raised the flop too, but here are some possible reasons to call: you're not getting even a small club to fold or a straight draw, and there are a lot of cards that can wreck your hand on the turn. If a club lands on the turn, you're folding. If a straight card comes, you're in a tricky position. If the turn is a blank however, your equity goes way up. Just calling the flop saves you money in this position when you can easily be outdrawn.

[drzen]

I think it's six of one, half a dozen of the other. There are hands that will call one but not two bets. Some of them shouldn't call one, so you're profiting if you just call, but some can. You're offering a gutty 11 to 1. I'm giving him 6.5 to 1 (assuming Villain calls and doesn't reraise). You're also offering small pairs 11 to 1. They can take one off for that.

[VickreyAuction]

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You played it backwards. I would call the flop and then raise the turn. As played I would certianly bet the turn.

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If the turn is the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], do you fold?

[Shillx]

A small club will probably fold. You are never folding out a high club though. The reason why I just call is because I want to see what falls on 4th street before I fully invest myself in this hand. It would suck to put 3 or 4 bets in on the flop just to fold it on a turned [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. If a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turns I can dump it cheap and I can really drive the action when an offsuit card falls.

[drzen]

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A small club will probably fold. You are never folding out a high club though. The reason why I just call is because I want to see what falls on 4th street before I fully invest myself in this hand. It would suck to put 3 or 4 bets in on the flop just to fold it on a turned [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. If a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turns I can dump it cheap and I can really drive the action when an offsuit card falls.

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I do see what you're saying but you are presumably thinking you are miles ahead if you don't turn a club. So aren't you passing up a big edge on the flop? Let's say you call and CO calls the single bet.

Then you turn a blank. Villain checks and you bet. CO folds, villian thinks you've hit on the turn, given your lack of aggression on the flop, and folds too. I'm thinking this will happen more often than not. Okay, you win it those times, so that's cool, but you win less when you actually are ahead.

Still, I am not being critical. I took my own route to avoiding losing and it sucked a lot more than your line!

One further question though. If the turn is a club, are you without question dumping it? How sick will you be if the river is a blank, villain shows a small Q or an A that he had bet as an overcard and CO shows J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]?

[Shillx]

No it is good to fight the norm. There are many times where posters are wrong (myself included) yet don't know it. There are just times both in hold'em and life where you pass up on an edge to exploit a bigger edge later. This is basically what is going on this in hand.

The decision is a lot closer with something like a straight or a small flush. With a set you would always drive forward on the flop because there is both a good chance that you have the best hand + you will fill up about 33% of the time. A flush is also probably worth driving because now anyone with a bigger [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] only has 7 outs to the winner. The odds that a bigger [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls when you have 2 offsuit cards is...

p = 1 - 37/47*36/46 = 38.4%

When you hold 2 of the said suit...

p = 1 - 39/47*38/46 = 31.4%

So when you combine that with the fact that a small flush can beat all 2-pair/trips hands that TPTK can't, you can begin to see why gassing with a flush makes more sense. The hand that is tough to play is a straight. It depends on a lot of factors and it is IMO beyond the scope of this post. Maybe an idea for a later post will focus around the EV on 3 flush boards. I dunno we will see.