4/8 live, JTo in the BB flops a gutty

bozlax · #1 08-20-2006, 10:38 PM

Beautiful table. 4/8, 10-handed, a total fishbowl, non-kill, loose-passives out the wazoo; nothing particularly notable about any of them, they all seem to be fairly predictable: they're pretty w/t when it comes to playing draws, but they'll call down if they catch a decent piece. I'm making hands, value-betting my ass off, feeling good, when this hand comes up.

I'm in the BB, looking at J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5 limpers, the SB completes, I check my option. 7 handed to the flop for 7SB.

The flop comes A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB checks, I check, EP bets, 1 fold, 3 calls, the SB folds and I call getting 11:1.

5 players to the turn for 6BB, and it comes 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I check, EP bets, 1 fold, 2 calls...Hero?

What's your action, and why? This hand has made me think of something, but I'd like to hear opinions before discussing.

Buzz-cp · #2 08-20-2006, 11:01 PM

Does this have to do with how you are going to make 1.5 bets on the river, because a c/r will not work against the weak players?

slavic · #3 08-20-2006, 11:03 PM

Really it doesn't make much of a difference. If you were unlikely to capture a bet on the river it's a fold, but I suspect you get 2 here a good portion of the time and it will break to the positive side for you.

If you are trying to loosen your image some , I would definetly call. When you show down a gutshot win on the river most payers will mark you as week at this level.

Note also that you have to consider the guy leading the action. If he or she is the type to go limp on the river with many hands your money making potential goes down. Likewise if the callers aren't the type to overcall, you can ratchet it down.

Now that I said all of that, someone is going to say that i think it's proper to go to the river on almost any hand in low limit hold'em. Well if the pot is large, yes it likely is.

mjkidd · #4 08-20-2006, 11:05 PM

9-1 is a little thin for a gutshot. I assume you'll check if you hit, hoping the turn bettor will bet, everyone will come along, and you'll check raise and get 3 callers, collecting 6 BB, which will more than justify your 9-1 shot on the turn. While 6 BB is probably optimistic, your implied odds seem pretty good, probably good enough to justify calling on the turn.

Fat Nicky · #5 08-20-2006, 11:13 PM

Getting 9:1, I think it's pretty safe to see the river card. Given the nature of the board (no flush draws), it's safe to say that at least 2 or the 3 players in the hand have something they will call a river bet with.

Ricks · #6 08-20-2006, 11:29 PM

If you make this call you will have to make up 2 BB on the river, if you hit your draw. I do not see a J or a T as an out. Since they are passive I don't think that you would be able to risk going for a c/r in the event that you make your hand unless you are reasonably sure that EP will bet into a possible str8 on the board.

With this bunch, I believe that you may have the implied odds to call the turn but it would be marginal. If two of them are on draws you would have to hope that a Q would help them in some way.

bozlax · #7 08-20-2006, 11:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Does this have to do with how you are going to make 1.5 bets on the river, because a c/r will not work against the weak players?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm not worried about that. If I bet, these players will call. Here's my question:

Who can explain to me why, given that I'm only going to hit my draw 1 time for every ten times I miss, I'm only concerning myself with making up the missing bets from THIS hand? Unless I feel I can make up 15+ bets, isn't this a sort of reverse-value-betting situation? Discuss.

btw, any progress on that dead pc?

bennyhana · #8 08-20-2006, 11:51 PM

I call with relative position to the bettor. I think it's close though. Making up bets when the Q falls could be hard, but you're not that far off.

Buzz-cp · #9 08-20-2006, 11:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does this have to do with how you are going to make 1.5 bets on the river, because a c/r will not work against the weak players?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I'm not worried about that. If I bet, these players will call. Here's my question:

Who can explain to me why, given that I'm only going to hit my draw 1 time for every ten times I miss, I'm only concerning myself with making up the missing bets from THIS hand? Unless I feel I can make up 15+ bets, isn't this a sort of reverse-value-betting situation? Discuss.

btw, any progress on that dead pc?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you talking about putting in bets on this turn? I'm confused

I'm giving up on the pc.

bennyhana · #10 08-20-2006, 11:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Who can explain to me why, given that I'm only going to hit my draw 1 time for every ten times I miss, I'm only concerning myself with making up the missing bets from THIS hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe I don't understand your question. Why is THIS hand any different than the other hands? Are you trying to improve your table image? Like someone else said, they will view you as a chaser of gutshots and pay you off more. But, I don't see anything wrong with the turn call, then donking the river Q.

OR, you are trying to discount your outs because others might have the same draw you do, a 4 outer to the str8 and you could be drawing to half the pot.