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#1
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
Its funny b/c on its face the math seems very logical, but if you were to run this calculation at the beginning of the season for the first 11 games (having perfect info on the team and players but not the results) I assume you would calculate a 1/1000 chance of being where we are today...are you saying that were witnessing such a unlikely occurance?
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#2
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
[ QUOTE ]
Its funny b/c on its face the math seems very logical, but if you were to run this calculation at the beginning of the season for the first 11 games (having perfect info on the team and players but not the results) I assume you would calculate a 1/1000 chance of being where we are today...are you saying that were witnessing such a unlikely occurance? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. That's exactly what I'm saying. How is it a team as atrocious as SF (much much worse than Miami), has 3 wins, and the Dolphins none? Luck. FO did an interesting article on Miami, and how unlucky they've been this season. 6 games by a FG, and they've had the 5th hardest schedule so far this season. This team is certainly worse without Brown, Green or Chambers, but they're not THAT bad. here's the article. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3124222 |
#3
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
your own article invalidates your argument. Since 1943, 18 teams have started out 0-11. assume 25 teams per year over 60 = 1500 seasons....that equates to a 1.2% chance NOT a 0.1% chance, about 12x difference...obv there are some flaws with this but not enough to justify a 1/1000 chance of Miami being where it is.
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#4
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
I don't understand what you're saying. How on earth does history show that Miami isn't running god awful?
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#5
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
im saying how can you ascribe a 1/1000 chance to something that history shows us actually has a 1/100 chance of happening
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#6
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
[ QUOTE ]
im saying how can you ascribe a 1/1000 chance to something that history shows us actually has a 1/100 chance of happening [/ QUOTE ] Because Miami is significantly better than your average 0-11 team. |
#7
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Re: Miami to NOT go 0-16 prop
And anyways, I have no idea what the odds of Miami being 0-11 is. It was your number and I was just saying that yes, Miami has run real bad, to an extent we haven't seen before. It might be 1/1000, it might be 1/500, it might be 1/3000. I haven't run any numbers yet.
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