top set with out of control pot

[Triantafylidis]

meh idk i was pickin random card that people might play, 1 gapper/2 gapper etc

[RichGangi]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm using my arm as a bulldozer to put everything in as soon as it gets to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Aisthesis]

I'd just be interested to hear if there's any possible group of hands where you have less than 50% equity in this pot--getting obviously incredible odds.

Maybe something like 3345 with one runner-runner flush, AA99ds with two more runner-runners and KQJT all of whatever suit isn't on the board. That collectively gives your opponents any runner-runner flush, plus a 3, plus an A, plus the 13 straight outs for 16 collective outs in addition to the runner-runners and no way for your hand to improve. That might put you down around 40% or so?

(probability of exactly those hands = very low)

[jocelyn1985]

I'd fold on all streets. Play it safe.

[getitfixed]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold on all streets. Play it safe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true...I think people like to gamble in situations where they might only be a 60/40 favorite....Crazy fish like this will obv. go busto....

[donkeykong2]

fold and wait for a better spot

[alavet]

[ QUOTE ]
fold and wait for a better spot

[/ QUOTE ]

[luckyjimm]

You can have a draw that's favourite against a flopped set, but the flush draw needs to be there. The other day I had Qc Jc Js 8s on a As Tc 9c flop and was up against a set of aces. I ran it through Twodimes (after I lost, obv) and found my draw made me 55% to win.

[Aisthesis]

This kind of surprized me:

pokenum -o qd qs 9c 4h - ah ad 9h 9d - 3s 3c 4s 5c - kc qc jc tc -- qh 9s 3d
Omaha Hi: 528 enumerated boards containing 9s 3d Qh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs 9c Qd 4h 100 18.94 428 81.06 0 0.00 0.189
Ad 9d Ah 9h 88 16.67 440 83.33 0 0.00 0.167
4s 3s 5c 3c 101 19.13 427 80.87 0 0.00 0.191
Kc Qc Jc Tc 239 45.27 289 54.73 0 0.00 0.453

Also:

pokenum -o qd qs 9c 4h - kc qc jc tc -- qh 9s 3d / ah ad 9h 9d 3s 3c 4s 5c
Omaha Hi: 528 enumerated boards containing 9s 3d Qh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs 9c Qd 4h 215 40.72 313 59.28 0 0.00 0.407
Kc Qc Jc Tc 313 59.28 215 40.72 0 0.00 0.593

Here, I just put in the same AA99 and 3345 hands as dead cards to see where you're at vs. the big draw alone (if that was deep stack, for example, and you're also deep).

Then we have:

pokenum -o qd qs 9c 4h - kc qc jc tc - ks js td 9d - ac ah 3c 3h -- qh 9s 3d
Omaha Hi: 528 enumerated boards containing 9s 3d Qh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs 9c Qd 4h 182 34.47 346 65.53 0 0.00 0.345
Kc Qc Jc Tc 1 0.19 337 63.83 190 35.98 0.182
Ks Js Td 9d 64 12.12 274 51.89 190 35.98 0.301
Ac 3c Ah 3h 91 17.23 437 82.77 0 0.00 0.172

Anyhow, it's at least possible to be in pretty bad shape against all 3 hands collectively. Certainly relevant for the whole calculation is where you're at relative to any stacks that cover you.

I'm guessing you're probably not any better than 35% or so to scoop, but you may be way ahead of the deepest stack.

The real question is where the blockers lie--if it's a bunch of sets and one big draw (blocking you from filling), then it's bad for you. If it's several (or best case, all) big draws, then they block themselves, and the fewer filling outs they block, the better off you are.

Anyhow, I'm certainly not advocating "fold" or anything nor do I think "this is the last place i wanted to be ..." But it's interesting to me anyway to see what kind of shape top set can be in--noticeably worse than I figured in a multi-way pot like this.

[original_red]

[ QUOTE ]
You can have a draw that's favourite against a flopped set, but the flush draw needs to be there. The other day I had Qc Jc Js 8s on a As Tc 9c flop and was up against a set of aces. I ran it through Twodimes (after I lost, obv) and found my draw made me 55% to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

No FD

board: As7d8h
569T - 51.58%
AA** - 48.42%

edit: too bad I seem to never flop a full wrap..