Play a Hand With the Masters #3 River

[adanthar]

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So to try and win an additional 600 chips, you're risking the 1800 chips in the pot (since you plan to fold to a check-raise).

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If you get check raised, and there were no obvious tells in the way he played his hand, you are beat.

Tells alter this a lot, but without those...you bet 600 and get checkraised. You think he CR's, check/calls, CR's A9?

[Pat Southern]

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If I'm not calling a push then I'm not risking 1600+tourney life.

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Alright, so the pot has 1800 chips, we bet out 600, leaving ourselves 1K behind. Villian check-raises to put us all-in, making the pot 3,000. We're getting 3:1 on our money and we fold? You could have saved the 600 chips AND had a 100% chance to see the showdown and possibly win the 1800.

So to try and win an additional 600 chips, you're risking the 1800 chips in the pot (since you plan to fold to a check-raise). This is just about as bad as risking the 600 chips with the intention of calling a check-raise for our remaining 1K chips (i.e. risking 1600 to win another 600 plus risking our entire tournament life).

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Ok, here's my reasoning. When you bet and are called say you are good 75% of the time, and therefore the EV of getting called is +300. Say 5% of the time when you're checkraised you end up folding the best hand, so it costs you 2400 chips, 95% of the time when you get checkraised you were beat so it cost you 600 chips. Therefore teh EV of betting and getting checkraised is -690. If we assume that everytime he folds he had a worse hand, then as long as you're called a little more than twice as much as you're checkraised then betting and folding to a cr is better than checking.

[CardSharpCook]

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Easy check. Every draw is there, and it means he wont make a crying call with a top pair type mediocre hand. Better hands call, worse hands fold.

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every draw? so we put him on 36? Yes, the flush draw made it... so did the Q9 draw... every other draw has missed. He made a huge call on the turn, why would he give up with his Q on the river?

[CardSharpCook]

That is fair, Pat. But I think you overestimate the chk/rz with the flush vs the chk/rz with air. But given those numbers, you have it right. Bet and fold to a check/raise. Actually, I think this is a very reasonable line. Far better than checking behind, and perhaps better than bet/call.

I think this should be the debate here. Is this a bet/call or a bet/fold? I really don't see an arguement for checking behind.

[adanthar]

Basically the only reason to call a checkraise is if you think he is capable of looking at your underbet, taking it for weakness and making a play with one pair or worse. Except that this can't really be one pair, because if he has A9 or even something really weird like AQ, he's got plenty of showdown value and a thinking player just wouldn't CR that kind of hand into what looks to be a pot committed player.

So if we're calling a CR, we're saying that he's got, say, JTo. Those donks do exist. They're just not nearly common enough to call one.

[A_PLUS]

So we...
Bet PF
Bet and call a CR on the flop
Bet the turn
Bet the River

How is it that any reasonable player is going to think we dont crush a hand like A9? We did show strength on every street into a draw heavy board, that looks like a good hand to me.

It isn't completely unreasonable to say someone will donk call with A9. But if we are assuming play that bad, why do we selectively exclude a poorly played set, straight, or flush?

If we are calling any push, I hate the risk/reward of opening the betting here, and I hate reopening a river if I can be pushed off a hand with that much of my stack in the pot.

On a minor side note, I think hoping for a CR bluff from BB here is being insanely optimistic, and a realy bad reason for betting here. So, the best case scenario in my mind is +600 chips. Even if we only risk the 600 chips (through him only calling, or us folding to a push) I think that the marginal value of 600 chips is much greater on the downside than the upside when your stack is at this level.

[A_PLUS]

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That is fair, Pat. But I think you overestimate the chk/rz with the flush vs the chk/rz with air. But given those numbers, you have it right. Bet and fold to a check/raise. Actually, I think this is a very reasonable line. Far better than checking behind, and perhaps better than bet/call.

I think this should be the debate here. Is this a bet/call or a bet/fold? I really don't see an arguement for checking behind.

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I had 25% of his range beating us on the turn. Of the hands that didnt improve on the river (non-flush draws), I just dont see that many of them calling down here. If we get CRed, we are most likely beat, but he will be bluffing a small % of the time (not enough to justify a call), but enough that we make a mistake by not just showing down.

If I thought he bluffed more often, we call down and gain EV, but I think it is pretty rare, and I think only hands that beat A9 will call here (not many in my range for him)

[bruce]

I check.

If only one draw got there on the river I'd make a stab at the pot, but in a tournament, unlike a cash game, where survival is crucial I don't want to risk unnecessary chips when I can get a cheap showdown. The extra 700 I can pick up in chips at this venture of the event isn't going to make any difference longterm as far as winning the tournament.

Bruce

[SossMan]

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The extra 700 I can pick up in chips at this venture of the event isn't going to make any difference longterm as far as winning the tournament.


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That extra 700 represents 35xBB. It's significant enough to separate the good players from the great (not applying that logic directly to this hand, but in a more general sense that great players will nearly always make the proper value bet/ check behind decisions)

[CardSharpCook]

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I check.

If only one draw got there on the river I'd make a stab at the pot, but in a tournament, unlike a cash game, where survival is crucial I don't want to risk unnecessary chips when I can get a cheap showdown. The extra 700 I can pick up in chips at this venture of the event isn't going to make any difference longterm as far as winning the tournament.

Bruce

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Did you really consider 36 to be in his range of hands? That is the only other "draw" that got there. Also, 700 chips represents 30% of our stack. That is significant. While the blinds on the FT may be 10K/20K, we can only play for hundreds at this point of the tourney. These chips DO matter.