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#11
10-24-2007, 01:00 AM
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Re: 77 Early with 13 BBs in the Super Tuesday
I think a fold is usually correct here, but I'd shove under these conditions:
1. Your table is very tight. 2. You have a nitty image and your table is not too stationy. 3. The blinds are expected to raise by the time you are the button or earlier than that. With 2.3k, once the blinds raise to 100/20 20, your FE goes down a ton. If these are not true, I think it's an easy fold. Especially so because the three guys immediately to your left have resteal capable stacks, and would probably not call you too lightly since losing the ability to resteal in this stage of an MTT is highly -EV. 
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#14
10-24-2007, 01:59 AM
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Re: 77 Early with 13 BBs in the Super Tuesday
[ QUOTE ]
I think a fold is usually correct here, but I'd shove under these conditions: 1. Your table is very tight. 2. You have a nitty image and your table is not too stationy. 3. The blinds are expected to raise by the time you are the button or earlier than that. With 2.3k, once the blinds raise to 100/20 20, your FE goes down a ton. If these are not true, I think it's an easy fold. Especially so because the three guys immediately to your left have resteal capable stacks, and would probably not call you too lightly since losing the ability to resteal in this stage of an MTT is highly -EV. [/ QUOTE ] I agree it's a fold, but I really don't think these make much of a difference. I mean, unless you're sirwatts or someone, no one is folding 88+ to a shove. Maybe they fold a couple extra flipping hands, but that really doesn't make much of a difference. If anything, being at a stationy table that thinks you're aggressive makes this push better/good. Steve
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#15
10-24-2007, 04:36 AM
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Re: 77 Early with 13 BBs in the Super Tuesday
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think a fold is usually correct here, but I'd shove under these conditions: 1. Your table is very tight. 2. You have a nitty image and your table is not too stationy. 3. The blinds are expected to raise by the time you are the button or earlier than that. With 2.3k, once the blinds raise to 100/20 20, your FE goes down a ton. If these are not true, I think it's an easy fold. Especially so because the three guys immediately to your left have resteal capable stacks, and would probably not call you too lightly since losing the ability to resteal in this stage of an MTT is highly -EV. [/ QUOTE ] I agree it's a fold, but I really don't think these make much of a difference. I mean, unless you're sirwatts or someone, no one is folding 88+ to a shove. Maybe they fold a couple extra flipping hands, but that really doesn't make much of a difference. If anything, being at a stationy table that thinks you're aggressive makes this push better/good. Steve [/ QUOTE ] I misconstrued what I meant to say in #2, didn't mean to say that they're "not stationy", which would obv be good. I meant to say that they adjust calling ranges according to Hero's tightness. To make the shove profitable, the calling ranges would have to be unreasonably tight. I did a few calculations and a shove here is -EV against most reasonable calling ranges, and it takes a very tight calling(or very loose calling range obv) range to make the shove +EV. 1 and 2 do matter though, the tighter Hero's table is the better the push becomes, and the tighter Hero's Image is at a table with observant players, the tighter the table's calling range gets.
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#16
10-24-2007, 06:35 AM
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Re: 77 Early with 13 BBs in the Super Tuesday
[ QUOTE ]
I agree it's a fold, but I really don't think these make much of a difference. I mean, unless you're sirwatts or someone, no one is folding 88+ to a shove. Maybe they fold a couple extra flipping hands, but that really doesn't make much of a difference. If anything, being at a stationy table that thinks you're aggressive makes this push better/good. Steve [/ QUOTE ] OK, I was thinking about at what stack size we want people to call with overcards and when we would rather they fold (Based on EV only, ignoring variance and risk) so I did a few calcs. The following is assuming no antes. SB = Small Blind Y is our stack size (or effective stacks) If someone not in the blinds calls, and everyone else folds, our EV is EV = 0.55(y+3SB) - 0.45y EV = 0.1y + 1.65SB If the SB calls, and everyone else folds, our EV is EV = 0.55(y+2SB) - 0.45y EV = 0.1y +1.1SB If the BB calls and everyone else folds, our EV is EV = 0.55(y+1SB) - 0.45y EV = 0.1y + 0.55SB Our break even will be when our EV from a call from overs is equal to 3SB (what we get if everyone folds), so if y is greater than the various breakeven points, we prefer a call from overs. If someone not in the blinds calls 0.1y + 1.65SB = 3SB y = 13.5SB (6.75 big blinds) If SB calls 0.1y +1.1SB = 3SB y = 19 SB (9.5 big blinds) IF BB calls 0.1y + 0.55SB = 3SB y = 24.5SB (12.25 big blinds) For above, Y is the stack size where we want a call. How does this apply to our play? Essentially I think it only easily relates to times when we know we will get called by all higher pairs, so we can ignore them. We can then use the above to work out whether having players behind with more overs in their calling range is better or worse for us at the different stack sizes. In the example in this thread where we have 13 big blinds, players having looser calling ranges is better for us, we actually would like a call if it came from any player, even the BB. Obviously, this tells us nothing about our chances of running into 88+ here. I think my analysis would be more useful in late position. Obviously as your stack size goes up, the higher the risk/reward ratio you have, and the times you get called by a higher pair becomes much worse for you in comparision to what you could be winning.
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