Stud/8 weird spot

[djk123]

i never know what to do in spots like this. note that villain started the hand with $693. i don't really have much of a draw and he hit fairly good, but there's so much money in the pot.

7 Card Stud High-Low ($100/$200), Ante $25, Bring-In $25 (converter)

3rd Street - (1.00 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 5: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 8: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds

4th Street - (5.50 SB)

Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: (5.50 SB - $550)

[Andy B]

There's $550 in the pot and another $468 to be bet. So you're getting a little less than 2:1 to call down. It may well be that you have something approaching the correct fourth-street equity to call down. The reality of the situation is that you are going to be forced to fold on fifth street quite often. In addition to being a dog, your hand is a playing loser. If the other guy were closer to all-in, I'd probably get it in there.

[dcb777]

You are definetly correct to fold on 4th as you did.

[betgo]

4th looks good.

I like a fold to the raise on 3rd.

[djk123]

folding to the reraise on 3rd would be terrible!

[roggles]

To me this is an easy fold. But since you seem to be very good at this game I guess it's closer than I think and I'm afraid to give advice. Where is this cash game from?

Betgo, to me this is a playable hand in 8-handed stud8. Consider reevaluating your hand standards :P

[Raxxmataxx]

I don't think it would be very hard to just figure this out with twodimes and a notepad, just time consuming.

Just assume that we're getting every chip in on 5th no matter the cards and that the opponent never folds. Then calculate the EV of some sample cases and average it out according to frequency of hole cards.

If that turns out to be positive I think it's pretty safe to play on.

Looking quickly at some 5th street scenarios it doesn't seem entirely implausible that it may work out to me. It's pretty hard for the other guy to have a hand strong enough that it would be right to fold with open cards on that street.

Since checkraising and betting fifth largely eliminates the reverse implied odds that is the reason you usually checkfold on 5th I think playing on is a lot more plausible than it might look on it's face.

If you'll estimate your opponents hole card range I can make some rough calculations.

Thinking about it, it's pretty likely that the other guy severly underestimates our strength for high here.

[djk123]

His range is something like rolled,(JJ)+,(Ace-low), lots of 3-low flush hands, any (baby-baby).