Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

[dudeimstoked]

im down for it.

[thing85]

Any chance the iphone cannibalizes the ipod's sales? Or will this be completely insignificant?

[rsigley]

i think this one is free money too

Bet On: Will Ron Paul raise a total of $12 million or more in contributions by December 31, 2007?

yes -160

he already has about 9.4 million raised in this quarter with a huge money blitz planned for dec 16th (ron paul tea party)

his last money blitz raised about 4.5 million, he would need half of that to make 12 million

also if you take out that one day blitz, he's been averaging 84k/day in donations, with 34 days left in the year thats 2.85 mil more which will put him over barely even without the ron paul tea party

i also like the no -120 on

Political Props Bet On: Will the Ron Paul Tea Party 2007 meet its goal of raising $10 million or more in donations? - Moneyline

[rsigley]

one more ron paul
Political Props Bet On: Will the Ron Paul Tea Party 2007 receive more than 100,000 pledges by the end of December 16, 2007? -

i took the no at even

highest # of donors he had before in one day was 38,887

he's only been averaging 5k/week minus that one week

i think the under 10 million and 100k pledges are correlated, so since i hit the no on u10 mil gonna hit the no here too

[thing85]

Any value in trying to middle the over 4.3 mil and under 10 mil for the Ron Paul tea party?

[thing85]

lol, iPod bet down already. Think they're moving the line, or just taking it down altogether? Usually Bodog just shifts the odds when max bets pour in, unless they think some kind of info. has been leaked that would make this bet stay OTB. Not sure how that could be considering there's a lot left of the quarter.

[rsigley]

[ QUOTE ]
Any value in trying to middle the over 4.3 mil and under 10 mil for the Ron Paul tea party?

[/ QUOTE ]

i ended up doing this with -200 on o4.3, but not so sure at -300 if its a good idea

been looking at http://ronpaulgraphs.com/teaparty_vs_nov5_members.html

seems like all the people who registered for the tea party all did it at once and its a small growth since the initial surge

based on this graph i'm really liking the u 100k pledges a lot now

looks like he's going to get around the same number of pledges based on that graph, hopefully he'll keep about the same donation/person ratio as last time ($150/person)

the o12 mil is now -400, was -160 less than an hour ago ha

[thing85]

Nice find, btw. Thanks.

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]


looks like he's going to get around the same number of pledges based on that graph, hopefully he'll keep about the same donation/person ratio as last time ($150/person)


[/ QUOTE ]

At the current level of subscribers (~22k), at $150/person, he would currently be at ~$3.3 mil. So, he needs about $1 mil more (or roughly 7,000 more people) to go over $4.3 mil. The odds are currently at -400, so this needs to happen >80% of the time. Not sure I like it a ton, but if 7k more subscribers is at all difficult to come by, under 100k has to be a near-lock (I hate saying that, especially knowing very little about this).

[rsigley]

wow, the o4.x million is now at -900

i'm wondering how much this forum influences the lines, i know there's small limits, but they're quick to move the lines on these things. cause if 2p2 influence is small it looks like we're on the right side of every bet

the lines plummeted in 2 hours or so

are that many people really chekcing bodog political props on wed morning?