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  #1  
Old 11-28-2007, 12:48 AM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
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Default Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

iPod sales ending this Q [12/31]
o24mm -130
u24mm -110

Apple iPod shipments were up 17% YoY last Q. Forecasts are as high as 29mm units. Avg forecast is 25mm units.

But, Apple was *unusally aggressive* in their revenue forecast which backs into the 24mm number, and if you know anything about *official* next Q forecasts, once they give them - they beat them about 95%+ of the time.

To get >24mm, they just need growth during Holiday season to be 19%, up from 17% during a seasonally slow Q.

Again, seems fairly straightforward. I make this line a value up to -180 and maybe higher. It's not that the analyst estimate is 25mm, it's that Apple went on record as saying they forecast 24mm [LDO]. They'll sell 24,000,002 if Jobs/IR Dept has to buy 100,002 himself.

And increasing the growth rate during the holiday 3 mos really seems like a slam-dunk. People who can't get a Wii or etc will get iPods for kids.

Oh - also they released the new iPod in Sept, right before Q started, so big pent-up demand there.'Jobs added new versions in September, including a video player called the iPod Touch that uses the same touch- screen technology as the iPhone.' This is basically the ipod phone-look version that does everything but make calls. I expect it will do well.

Profit this quarter will rise to about $1.42 a share on sales of $9.2 billion, Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer said in the statement.

Analysts had anticipated $1.39 in profit and sales of $8.57 billion, the average estimates in the Bloomberg survey. Apple usually gives a forecast that's below analysts' predictions.

``We're looking forward to our best December quarter ever,'' Oppenheimer said on a conference call. ``Apple is shipping the best products that we have ever made in our history. We're quite confident in the business, and we exited the September quarter with a lot of momentum.''

I can only put $65 on this, but I would put 6500 if I could.

tl/dr;
Oppenheimer - I HAZ LOCKZ!
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  #2  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:02 AM
n2p n2p is offline
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Default Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

on it thanks
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  #3  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:02 AM
Performify Performify is offline
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Default Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

Nice find, thanks Naj.

-P
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  #4  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:10 AM
boscoboy boscoboy is offline
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Default Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

[ QUOTE ]
Nice find, thanks Naj.

-P

[/ QUOTE ]
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  #5  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:11 AM
hedgie43 hedgie43 is offline
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Default Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

Thanks, Naj.
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  #6  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:16 AM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
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Default Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

Just to be clear, this is obvs not a 'Lock.'

I am of course kidding with that terminology, but not kidding I would put >$5k on it if I could. At least a 2-1 favorite but given the CFO's bullishness, could be *way* higher LDO.

[FTR, I dislike Apple and own none of their products, but certainly admire their marketing prowess. I just don't look at their devices thru rose-colored glasses like many 2p2ers.]
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  #7  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:19 AM
thing85 thing85 is offline
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Default Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

[ QUOTE ]
and if you know anything about *official* next Q forecasts, once they give them - they beat them about 95%+ of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
. I make this line a value up to -180 and maybe higher.

[/ QUOTE ]


If you expect them to beat it 95% of the time (even if that was a mild exaggeration), wouldn't you find value up to maybe -1000 or more?

Edit: Just read your post before this one.
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  #8  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:21 AM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
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Default Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

Yes, but others have differing definitions of 'value' than I do, LDO.
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  #9  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:23 AM
thing85 thing85 is offline
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Default Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

Okay, good point. I guess it depends on how much of an edge you like to have. Especially with a $65 max bet.
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  #10  
Old 11-28-2007, 01:59 AM
Nonfiction Nonfiction is offline
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Default Re: Morez Biz Bodoz EZ Propz - I Haz Lockz

good find, thanks naj
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