Two Plus Two Newer Archives the proof is in the pudding
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#61
12-01-2007, 05:07 PM
 bills217 Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: taking DVaut\'s money Posts: 3,294
Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
a "true line" for you picking 60/100 would be -150 if you're a 60% capper

[/ QUOTE ]

Er - wouldn't the true line be approx. +100? I don't get it.
#62
12-01-2007, 05:25 PM
 NajdorfDefense Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Manhattan Posts: 8,227
Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

i MAKE 3 to 1 on my money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perf, change title to "Perpetual Bankroll Tripler" plz.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't forget Billionaire at the end of that.
#63
12-01-2007, 05:32 PM
 Performify Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Sports Betting forum Posts: 3,847
Re: the proof is in the pudding

If he's actually 60% to win a game, his "true" line for that game is -150.

Switching subjects, if the widely available line is -110, a 60% win rate represents a Kelly stake of 16% of his bankroll on every game. At half-Kelly, 8% per game in isolation.

If you were taking 5 simultaneous games per Saturday, that would be 40% of your bankroll in action at Full Kelly stakes and bankroll growth of 60% per month.

This would grow \$10,000 to \$167,772.16 in six months and to \$2,814,749.77 in twelve months.

At half-Kelly you'd be talking better than 25% bankroll growth per month with close to 30% of your roll in action on five simultaneous games per weekend.

This would grow \$10,000 to \$43,980.47 in six months and to \$193,428.13 in twelve months.

-P
#64
12-01-2007, 05:33 PM
 Thremp Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Free Kyleb Posts: 10,163
Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
If he's actually 60% to win a game, his "true" line for that game is -150.

Switching subjects, if the widely available line is -110, a 60% win rate represents a Kelly stake of 16% of his bankroll on every game. At half-Kelly, 8% per game in isolation.

If you were taking 5 simultaneous games per Saturday, that would be 40% of your bankroll in action at Full Kelly stakes and bankroll growth of 60% per month.

At half-Kelly you'd be talking better than 25% bankroll growth per month with close to 30% of your roll in action on five simultaneous games per weekend.

-P

[/ QUOTE ]

And retirement somewhere along month 27 along with bankrupting Pinnacle.
#65
12-01-2007, 05:34 PM
 bills217 Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: taking DVaut\'s money Posts: 3,294
Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
If he's actually 60% to win a game, his "true" line for that game is -150.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, yeah, obviously, but we were talking about his true line to pick 60/100, weren't we? Wouldn't that be ~+100 (assuming a 60% capper)?
#66
12-01-2007, 05:36 PM
 MicroBob Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: The cat is back by popular demand. Posts: 29,344
Re: the proof is in the pudding

I had one of those Starbucks coffee Frappuccino things in a bottle earlier today and I thought, "Man, this tastes kind of like pudding."
Then I opened this thread. It was weird.
#67
12-01-2007, 05:39 PM
 Performify Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Sports Betting forum Posts: 3,847
Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he's actually 60% to win a game, his "true" line for that game is -150.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, yeah, obviously, but we were talking about his true line to pick 60/100, weren't we? Wouldn't that be ~+100 (assuming a 60% capper)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess it depends on how you look at it.

Even if the true line is +100, he's still being offered +150, still wildly +EV.
#68
12-01-2007, 05:39 PM
 Performify Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Sports Betting forum Posts: 3,847
Re: the proof is in the pudding

[ QUOTE ]
I had one of those Starbucks coffee Frappuccino things in a bottle earlier today and I thought, "Man, this tastes kind of like pudding."
Then I opened this thread. It was weird.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I really want one of those. Thanks, MicroBob.
#69
12-01-2007, 05:41 PM
 Daliman Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Wongs are two things, (at least). Posts: 10,376
Re: the proof is in the pudding

I went like 140-36 in teasers. My tout site goes up in 3 days. www.wongmessiah.com . It will be subscription only, and my intense and exhaustive analysis of the lines to find games that cover BOTH the 3 and 7 will be available for \$999.95 per season.
#70
12-01-2007, 05:48 PM
 Performify Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Sports Betting forum Posts: 3,847
Re: the proof is in the pudding

This thread really got me thinking introspectively about some stuff. Which I guess is probably a lot more productive than anything I expected to come out of a thread with pudding in the title.

If your goal from the beginning was "eRespect" TLT, you went about it all wrong.

You want to know the best way to build a big eReputation / eFollowing?

Look up WaterOlay.

(head to search, type in WaterOlay in the Username Search field, and select older than 9 months in the date options and you'll find his first posts. When you're ready to move forward, use the older than / newer than combo to go forward through months, for example "older than 8 months but newer than 9" will move backwards a month through his posts.)

He came on here and had one of the sickest, hottest runs of any new capper I've ever seen. Made me money as I hopped on board early and used actual bankroll management to his picks instead of scaling my units the way he did.

Then of course he had personal problems and ended up exercising terrible bankroll management. But if you look at his lifetime win percentage on publicly posted picks against widely available lines he's one of the best cappers this forum or any forum has ever seen.

He had an insane e-following, and a lot of people who e-cared about him. Many offered bankroll management coaching, eFriendship, eFellowship, you name it, when he was having problems.

I'm not sure what your original goal was. From what i've seen and what we've talked in PMs, it seems to me like you truly believe that you are an excellent football handicapper.

You might be. You might not be. The only real way to know is to post picks and let your results speak for themselves.

If you're hot, if you're good, people will notice. eFans will eFlock in eBunches.

If you're not, we'll notice too.

Or you can just come on, and talk betting theory, bankroll optimization, share the occasional +EV nugget and balance that with an array of mockery and snide commentary. Works for some other people too.

But the one thing that never works anywhere in life is walking in somewhere and proclaiming your greatness.

Let your greatness stand by itself. If it's truly there.

-P

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