80NL value raise river w/ 2 pair??

[BevillTheDevil]

Villian is runnin like 31/12/2 after only 15 hands or so. No really good reads.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.40/$0.80
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $191.50
Hero: $203.90
SB: $108.25
BB: $154.70

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2.8</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($8.4, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $6</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($26.4, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks.

River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($26.4, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $10.4</font>, BB folds, Hero ?

[Lego05]

Raise/fold is good I think. It's still really likely he's got a pair of J's IMO. So I like raise/fold.

[pbx]

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Raise/fold is good I think. It's still really likely he's got a pair of J's IMO. So I like raise/fold.

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oh hell no. Just call. What do you achieve by raising. Is Any J going to call your raise ? no. Especially on that straight happy board. Villain has called pre and on the flop on a vv dry board. Checked the turn. and then bet into 2 !!! people. Also its 1/2 PSB and it just screams "zomg pay off my set/weirdass straight".

He could very well still have a J but raising just puts you in a horrible spot. If he shoves then what ?

call and take note.

[Lego05]

Raise to like 25-30....a J will call. If he shoves fold.


Obviously just calling is fine too. But I think you can get a bit more value outa this.

[Lego05]

IMO this is just about worst case scenario for what he has and will call or 3bet if we raise (I don't think he'll like ever 3bet the pair of J hands): (22-66,AJs,AJo,KJs,4 of 9 KJo combos, 65s -- and I take out all that can't possibly be due to the card being on the board):


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

35 games 0.005 secs 7,000 games/sec

Board: Jc 6h 3d 2s 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.286% 54.29% 00.00% 19 0.00 { 6s4s }
Hand 1: 45.714% 45.71% 00.00% 16 0.00 { 6c6d, 55, 4d4h, 3c3h, 3c3s, 3h3s, 2c2d, 2c2h, 2d2h, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, 6c5c, 6d5d, 6s5s, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AsJd, AsJh, KdJh, KdJs, KhJs, KsJh }

[soded]

I would just call.
People can call with weird stuff in the blinds.
In this case though, he's not betting very much, he's giving you 3.5 to 1 to call, which you will win more than 30% of the time. He might have just felt that you were weak after the turn check and that your flop bet was just a blind c-bet.
I think I would have bet the turn. If your 6's are good on flop, they're pretty much good when that 2 hits on the turn.
Also with VPIP 31 (although only with 15 hands, which doesn't mean much), SB could just be protecting his blinds with A4 or K4 or some other garbage... although A4 does have some showdown potential cuz of the A... Another factor to put him on a wider range, players tend to play much more losely short handed, they take the TAG play and throw it out the window and become much more LAG, with the mentality that more hands will hold up against fewer players. This is just a generalization, but at these limits, it's not hard to find such players.

[kolotoure]

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Raise/fold is good I think. It's still really likely he's got a pair of J's IMO. So I like raise/fold.

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He could very well still have a J but raising just puts you in a horrible spot. If he shoves then what ?


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We fold obv and not raising is leaving value on the table