Neither Vanessa nor Change can count

[ncpokeresq]

In the coverage, the hand came up as follows:

6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Vanessa had K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Other player had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

She calls all in and thinks she is a favorite, Change thinks she has 15 outs twice.

[Photoc]

Source? Vanessa who? Change who?

[ ] Great thread
[X} want my 30 seconds back

[Kevmath]

Pokernews.com, Vanessa Rousso, Change100 (reporter)

[gravycakes]

FLIP

[USRaider]

Hate to say this, but technically they (both Rousso and Change) are correct.

Rousso, upon calling the all in, is figuring on the nine hearts (making a flush), any King (three) and any Queen (three) for a total of fifteen outs.

Upon seeing her opponent has the Ace of hearts, she does lose one out but still possesses fourteen outs. Either way, statistically she has the drawing edge against the AJ.

With fifteen outs, using the basic Rule of Four, she has a 60% chance of taking the hand. Losing one out, she still has a slight edge of 56%.

[gravycakes]

Rule of four is an estimate...plus redraws. its like 48% for Vanessa

[USRaider]

You are correct gravy...working off the quick estimate is sometimes what a player will have to work with, though.

[ncpokeresq]

I see that Gravy beat me to it, but Vanessa was wrong about being a favorite, though she clearly was getting the correct pot odds, and the # of outs was 14, not 15.

[kerr]

The A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] makes her a slight dog. Any other ace, even A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for a BDFD gives her a small advantage.

[change100]

Excuuuuse me for saying fifteen outs not fourteen in the 30 seconds I had to write up that hand before some other dude across the room went all in.

Vanessa indeed said she was a favorite, and I believe I reported that in quotes, though I might not remember it exactly, seeing as I wrote up hundreds of hands that day.

You guys really need a new hobby. I dare any of you to try my job for one day and see how you fare. Tournament reporting is nowhere near an exact science, but we do the best we can.