ufc 72 + 73 on bodog - Page 3

jomatty · #21 06-15-2007, 09:44 PM

i too would be curious why he thinks silvas ground game is weak. his black belt is from a great school and the times ive seen him on the ground he has looked really good.

i have no doubt that he knows more about it than me but i would love to hear why he thinks that, because it seems a ridiculous statement. just because somebodies muay thai is great dosent mean they dont have good jiu jitsu as well.

Performify · #22 06-15-2007, 10:59 PM

Silva is by no means bad on the ground.

That said, Nate the Great is going to pwn him hard. I released Nate as a public pick quite a while ago (both before the line was released and when the line opened @ quite a bit higher) and its been bet down quite a bit since open.

If you're not familiar with Marquardt, he's a seven time King of Pancrase. Great ground skills. Competed against the likes of Lister in ADCC.

This fight is going to the ground and Nate will control it there. If this were only a three round fight I'd have moved my entire roll on Marq at the open line (or at least as much as possible these days... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] ). The five round title fight actually works to Silva's advantage as it gives him quite a bit more opportunity to pull something off from the bottom and gives him five opportunities to start the fight on his feet instead of just three.

If you haven't seen it, before you judge Marquardt find the tape of Marq demolishing Dean Lister at UFC Fight Night 8. Final judges scores: 30-27, 30-25, 30-25.

Before anyone says anything derogitory, obviously the Lister fight is not a direct comparison as Lister obviously is no where near the striker that Silva is, so Marq could approach the fight much differently. But still, watch the fight, watch Marq absolutely demolish a world-class grappler in the Octagon, and you'll get a great introduction to "Nate The Great".

There will reach a point where Marq is no longer valuable. As it is, a ton of value has already been bet out. But I'd still be on Marquardt at the current line, just not nearly as heavy. I'm very heavy on Marq avg'd around +185 for the record, and I think its one of the best bets I've made in my career.

loveminuszero · #23 06-15-2007, 11:54 PM

he's bad on the ground compared to Marquardt, that's my point. Sure he has a black belt, but so does Wanderlei Silva, not all black belts are good using no-gi jiu-jitsu in MMA.

Marquardt will dominate Silva using his vastly superior ground game.

How do you think Silva would do against an ADCC champ like Dean Lister? He would be absolutely demolished, as opposed to dominating like Marquardt did.

loveminuszero · #24 06-16-2007, 12:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i disagree about silvas ground game as well. he has looked pretty good on the ground when i have seen him. decent submissions and those long legs give him a very tight guard in which he often utilyzes a body triangle to keep his opponents from raising up and also sucks the air out of them. marquadt is a former king of pancrasse and seems to be the real deal but i just dont know enough about him to comment on the line.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol...

I was at one time new to MMA too, but even a newbie should know that long limbs present a disadvantage on the ground when it comes to giving up submissions. 14 of Marquardt's 25 wins are via submission, and it'll be 15 of 26 on July 8th.

[ QUOTE ]
Actually Lutter has a great ground game

[/ QUOTE ]

Lutter has good jiu-jitsu, but it pretty much ends at pure jiu-jitsu. His overall ground game is nowhere near Marquardt's. Also, Lutter was very weakened by making the mistake of trying to cut from 205+ pounds (which's why he didn't make weight) and his strength (especially in a weakened state) would be the main factor that will this time keep Silva down and fight off any sub attempts from the bottom.

goodsamaritan · #25 06-16-2007, 02:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Silva is by no means bad on the ground.

That said, Nate the Great is going to pwn him hard. I released Nate as a public pick quite a while ago (both before the line was released and when the line opened @ quite a bit higher) and its been bet down quite a bit since open.

If you're not familiar with Marquardt, he's a seven time King of Pancrase. Great ground skills. Competed against the likes of Lister in ADCC.

This fight is going to the ground and Nate will control it there. If this were only a three round fight I'd have moved my entire roll on Marq at the open line (or at least as much as possible these days... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] ). The five round title fight actually works to Silva's advantage as it gives him quite a bit more opportunity to pull something off from the bottom and gives him five opportunities to start the fight on his feet instead of just three.

If you haven't seen it, before you judge Marquardt find the tape of Marq demolishing Dean Lister at UFC Fight Night 8. Final judges scores: 30-27, 30-25, 30-25.

Before anyone says anything derogitory, obviously the Lister fight is not a direct comparison as Lister obviously is no where near the striker that Silva is, so Marq could approach the fight much differently. But still, watch the fight, watch Marq absolutely demolish a world-class grappler in the Octagon, and you'll get a great introduction to "Nate The Great".

There will reach a point where Marq is no longer valuable. As it is, a ton of value has already been bet out. But I'd still be on Marquardt at the current line, just not nearly as heavy. I'm very heavy on Marq avg'd around +185 for the record, and I think its one of the best bets I've made in my career.

[/ QUOTE ]

Marquardt is clearly EV here at any positive number and some low negative numbers. Marquardt will expose A. Silva's [censored] wrestling once and for all in this fight. This is one of the best lines since Gracie-Hughes.

BTW, Sherk is majorly EV as well. BJ Penn in his prime is the only 155 lber capable of taking out Sherk.

anatta · #26 06-16-2007, 07:28 PM

I never win when I bet on this stuff, but man, Performity loves Nate the Great in this one. (I thought Lutter fight was an impressive win vs. a solid ground guy, but couldn't believe a pro would come in heavy and lose a shot at a belt, Lutter didn't seem the type to let this happen)

This card (ufc 72) sucks from a fan standpoint. I am such a UFC addict, I'll probably get it. Forest G was exposed last time out, kinda fun to watch him fight, but I can't believe he is even a top 20 talent. Ed H. just can't break through, despite all his bravado. I think he knows this is it for him, so maybe he finally actually wins.

anatta · #27 06-16-2007, 10:58 PM

So I just watched the Guida v Griffin that was awesome. None of the 155s on TUF would stand a chance vs. these guys. Too strong and skilled. Guida got robbed.

igetbadbeat · #28 06-17-2007, 11:22 AM

everyone here lucked out wiht tyson griffin. Lucked out HUGE. Sick fight either way though.

HoldemPokerPlyr · #29 06-17-2007, 09:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I never win when I bet on this stuff, but man, Performity loves Nate the Great in this one. (I thought Lutter fight was an impressive win vs. a solid ground guy, but couldn't believe a pro would come in heavy and lose a shot at a belt, Lutter didn't seem the type to let this happen)

This card (ufc 72) sucks from a fan standpoint. I am such a UFC addict, I'll probably get it. Forest G was exposed last time out, kinda fun to watch him fight, but I can't believe he is even a top 20 talent. Ed H. just can't break through, despite all his bravado. I think he knows this is it for him, so maybe he finally actually wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know I've called every fight so far when I watch the UFC. However, I know as soon as I bet on one, I'll be wrong.

Haha.

jomatty · #30 06-18-2007, 06:17 AM

clearly you have something to prove and need to keep pumping yourself up. performity comes in and says that silva is good ont he ground and suddenly you are backpedaling and talking about "i was talking in comparison to nate blah blah". no you werent you were saying his ground game is bad, reread your post if you doubt it.

also i never said that long legs were not a disadvantage when it comes to giving up submissions. they can however be used to advantage when it comes to protecting yourself from taking abuse on the bottom the way silva uses the body triangle. i wasnt saying it was better to have long legs i was jsut pointing something out.

clearly you have something to prove. otherwise you wouldnt keep pointing out how knowledgeable you are and how little others know. im not a serious mma person or anything i jsut like to watch the fights so relax.