Potodds question: gutshot vs. imminent boat and flush draw on flop

[Heron]

BB has K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

UTG raises, MP calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, UTG bets, MP calls, Button calls

Can BB call this with his gutshot getting 11:1 (and planning to fold on the turn unimproved) or is it a fold and not even close?

[Nick C]

My first thought was that this was a fold, but having thought about it more, I'm not so sure.

It is a hazardous situation, though, since the two flop calls indicate that it's more likely than usual that there's a flush draw out there. (As far as the possibility of a flush draw goes, though, it does help somewhat that two big diamonds are on the board already in a pot that was raised right up front.)

It is entirely possible that someone is slowplaying a Q (hopefully not with AQ!). If so, we'll get action on the turn if we catch, so we've got some implied odds there. However, we will lose to a redraw on the river sometimes too. And then on occasion we will have been drawing dead in the first place, and that possibility cuts into the implied odds I was talking about.

One troubling possibility that I don't think we should disregard is the chance that someone else has the same damn draw that we do, in which case we're drawing to half of the pot.

Still, we are closing the action, and if we call, what we're doing is looking to catch a miracle card on the turn. Usually we won't, and when we don't, we're done with the hand.

Things sometimes will get uncomfortable even if we do catch, though, and I would probably just fold and avoid the fireworks that may be coming on the turn.

[Oink]

I fold it.

Getting 11:1 with 4 cards to improve looks ok, but there is a lot of cards in the deck that will kill Hero's straight.

AA [3], QQ [1] and AQ [6] is only a small part of UTG's range, but againts most other hands Hero cant expect to get huge payment, eg: KK.

So Hero is prolly not drawing dead, but if he catches a non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T, there are 3 A's, 3 K's, 2 Q's, 3 J's and 3 T's, 14 cards out of 45 that will either make the straight second best or induce chops.
When Hero catches the T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] there is an additional 9 diamonds to make his straight second best if it isnt already. That is 21 out of 45 cards that will likely counterfeit Hero's straight.

I would guess that Hero has 2.5-3 outs on average.

[Apanage]

This is a turbo fold for me.