50NL: AK 101 for the millionth time

[spacetime]

I disagree. Villains actions cause hero to readjust his view on how to play the hand.

[Disconnected]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. Villains actions cause hero to readjust his view on how to play the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely his actions cause us to readjust, but which actions? The 3-bet? The c-bet? What's his range after the c-bet?

I'm OK with my range being too wide, by the way, but I also think it's pretty rare for an aggressive player to check the flop after 3-betting the flop, and in fact, against an aggressive player, I'm more prone to think the flop hit him really hard if he checks.

[Chomp]

Thanks for great replies.

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. Villains actions cause hero to readjust his view on how to play the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is exactly what confused me in this hand. I count at least 4 different ranges to consider:

1. Villain's pf 3b range
We all agree it's quite wide.

2. Villain's range for calling/shoving over a preflop 4b
But this range is narrow - {AK, QQ+}. Maybe JJ 15% of the time he has it or something. This is why I agree with Check the Nuts - I never see a call from AQ here, and we are well behind a {AK, QQ+} range even allowing for dead money. So I call without firmer evidence he is being cute. Generally IP, I will only shove if I think villain is getting way out of line 3b'ing.

3. Villain's cbetting range
This is, let's say, NEARLY as wide as his pf3b range. But the cbet size REALLY stumped me. I mean, $15 > $16 pot? That is very very odd IMO (unless I am reading too much into it!). Dunno, seems to me I would have been more willing to shove over a $12 or $13 bet. Maybe that's dumb.

4. Villain's range for calling a flop shove
Bah. If we get called we are dead or chopping IMO. So maybe the question is: how often, given preflop and flop, is villain's range {JJ-, air, AK not cc} and how often is it {AK, QQ+, KQ}.

I just could not seem to reconcile all these ranges as the hand played out. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]. So I folded like a pathetic nit on the basis that I had not much money invested. Lame.

..................

@ Disconnected: No problem. Sorry, I get too grumpy on these forums too quickly.

[munkey]

o.k I'll read the discussion l8er and reply as it seems interesting but grunching 1st:

preflop std range JJ+, AK vs an unknown, he's 3bet u twice so no real 3betting history e.t.c

on the flop we're chopping with AK at best or a bluff JJ/TT or AQ on this flop. If I knew his range was wider I might call the flop bet here but I think folding is fine. If we get AI and get called we're chopping @ best, if we make them fold [I think our FE is low given preflop->flop action] we win a 3bet pot so risk/reward I fold.


BTW I fold AKo to 3bets with no 3betting history unless they're droolers, 4bet/shove or fold preflop.
On a dry flopper less broadway I often felt here.in 3bet pot.

[/nittiness]

[Fiksdal]

grunch

shove preflop unless villain is a nit. Readless certainly shove given your position and 100bb stack

[Kimo White Devil]

Shove preflop. all the rest becomes so easy.

[Triggerle]

I fold AK to pre-flop 3bets all the time at NL50.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.870% 30.56% 12.31% 18835139 7591111.50 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 57.130% 44.82% 12.31% 27625582 7591111.50 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
</pre><hr />

I shove vs. short stacks or once I have identified an opponent as a light 3bettor. I need more than 30 hands for that usually.

[AZplaya]

I think shoving AK pre against a relative unknown adds a ton of unecessary variance at this level. At least at FTP $50, there are so many better spots to get all your monies in. Given villians stats and the fact that you have no specific read on his 3 betting tendancies, I think its better to fold pre flop rather than call off over 10% of your stack, even in pos.
If you are willing to call this much pre with AK, I think you need to be willing to play for stacks once you catch a flop like this one.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold AK to pre-flop 3bets all the time at NL50.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.870% 30.56% 12.31% 18835139 7591111.50 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 57.130% 44.82% 12.31% 27625582 7591111.50 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
</pre><hr />

I shove vs. short stacks or once I have identified an opponent as a light 3bettor. I need more than 30 hands for that usually.

[/ QUOTE ]

Trig, folding AK pf in this spot is a decent-sized mistake. I'm not awake enough to back that up I'm afraid, but I 100% never fold given positions and reads.

I also don't like shoving - maybe I just run bad but the varience I get from doing this is massive. from the numbers i did it's like a couple of dollars of +EV, but obviously big swings.

Calling is standard and fine. You *usually* need to play for stacks when you hit, but this is definately one flop you can pull back from dive bombing.

[Triggerle]

Boz,

Against the range I proposed you will often hit and be behind. This is why calling is really bad. (Think RIO.) Raising is fine if our opponents have a wider range than what I proposed. (My Pokerstove numbers show that without that wider range we are -EV.)

Calling would theoretical be fine against such a wider range, too, but at NL 50 and below it requires reads to put someone on such a range.

Edit: Still talking about 100bb opponents. Vs shorties the gloves are off.