50NL: AA gets c/mr on rag flop

[Chomp]

Villain: 16/12/3, 200 hands. Seems solid and feisty.
Hero: 19/16/4 today. Playing/running well.
History: He took half a BI from me earlier when I 3b his CO open on Btn w/AJs, I flop FD/rag brd, he chks/I cb $9>$12 pot/he calls, Turn Ax c/c, River Xx, he leads half pot, I call. He has AK. So he knows I'm willing to be aggressive on first 2 streets. He didn't play the AK hand too aggro, but other history tells me he's a pretty feisty, but solid TAG.

So is flop b/3bai, b/3b not ai, call/let him hang himself on turn or, er, fold, or, er, check or...what?

Preflop is usually $3.25 for me here, not sure why I didn't this time.

Thanks.

.................................................

Converter at Talking-Poker

Button ($45.23)
SB <font color="#C00000">SB ($48.50)</font>
Hero <font color="#C00000">BB ($93.40)</font>
UTG ($6.61)
UTG+1 ($51.70)

Preflop: Hero is in the BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, Button calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">SB calls $3.00</font>.

Flop (8.00) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $6.75</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $13.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero...</font>

[DontTiltMe]

I call flop and push over his bet on non 8/spade turn i think.

[sww]

He has 8 almost never so I don't fear another 8 on turn that much. Nit's OOP calling range hardly includes A8s or 89s right? Nothing else at least. His range is overpairs, sets, flushdraws and bluffs. Overpairs should have raised preflop though so mostly nuts or air. I think I call here and push a none spade turn. If he checks a spade though I might vbet.

[hoyasaxa]

in my experience a check minraise screams set at the top of its lungs

[orig!naL]

limp, calls pf raise, checks flop, min-raise - IMO this is 33 and 22 a LOT. I would call the flop raise and look at what he does on the turn. If he gets really aggressive on the turn and leads out I would be in a really tough spot.

[+EV]

[ QUOTE ]
in my experience a check minraise screams set at the top of its lungs

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT.

There is no other hand that is consistent with this play. This is almost 100% a set.

+EV

[traz]

Alot of people play combo draws this way, but I agree it is often a set

[Chomp]

Interesting responses so far because I was unsure whether people would interpret this post as being a question about value, or a question about overvaluing 1 pair. So far, it is the latter.