50NL: Getting sucked in as I keep seeing the right odds

[Chomp]

Villain 26/20/4, 80 hands. No direct history at this table, but villain is playing exactly as you'd expect a decent TAG to play.

This is a common problem - you feel you are being offered the odds at every point and simultaneously feel you have very little FE against better hands, so you call along. This of course is a killer when you just have to fold in the end.

..................................

Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop | <font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($51.41)
SB Hero ($49.50)
BB ($67.49)
UTG <font color="#C00000">UTG ($50.00)</font>
UTG+1 ($52.55)
CO <font color="#C00000">CO ($50.30)</font>

Preflop: Hero is in the SB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
1 fold, CO raises to $2.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7.00, 1 fold, CO raises to $12.00, Hero calls $5.00.

Flop (24.50) K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero checks, CO bets $11.00, Hero calls $11.00.

Turn (46.50) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, CO moves all-in for $27.30, Hero folds

.................................


So preflop when he mini 4bs I am getting 4/1 on my money:

Hand 0: 28.607% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 71.393% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

(Making it KK+ makes surprisingly little equity difference).


On flop I am getting 3/1 AND he might just have whiffed or have QQ- AND his bet is so weak:

Board: Kh 2c As
Hand 0: 23.706% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 76.294% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


Finally, by the time villain bets the turn, QQ disappears from his range IMO, and we now know we are toast despite getting 2.7/1 on our money. Worse still, we are toast light almost half a BI!

What do you do throughout?

Thanks.

[Lego05]

I'd fold pre-flop to his min4bet. I honestly doubt he has anything other than KK or AA barely ever and I don't care anyway what my equity is vs. QQ+,AK I'm still folding.

[TheSalche]

Here's the problem with pot odds in NLHE ... they don't work well unless its an all-in situation.

When you take into account preflop and postflop pot odds, you are NOT taking into account action on further streets ... not to mention that RIO could be at work here. You got sucked into calling because you forgot/didn't realize this.

I too would fold preflop against the 4bet min-raise. You are OOP and are likely dominated.

[aka_bebel]

I would fold PF v his 4 bet and I would fold FLOP as played.

[Fiksdal]

these are not the correct odds preflop. what are you hoping to flop?

[AZplaya]

fold pre unless your pattern mapper says [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Blake Kyles]

I'd fold this pre-flop. Aside from flopping a monster, there's no flop that you're going to be really comfortable with versus his pre-flop 4 bet.

[filsteal]

You're not getting 4:1 on your money preflop. You're getting (20+X)4+X), where X is whatever you'll have to call off postflop to get to showdown. If X is, say, 11 (which it was, if you only consider the flop), then it's actualy 31:15 ~= 2:1 and you obviously should fold.

More realistically, X is probably the rest of his stack, so 38.