1/2 Live Home Game 300BB Deep against MurphProdigy

[gman06]

So I played in a live home game 6-handed w/ a few 2p2ers including bill ivey, mynameishov, and murphprodigy. We have played about 20 hands so far so I have very little info on playing styles, physical tells, etc.

Both of us start the hand with about $600 and $1/2 blinds. In MP I raise to 7 w/ QJ of diamonds. Murphprodigy is on the button and makes it 24. This is like the 4th hand already he has 3-bet preflop. Besides that, the two of us have talked poker a little and I know he has a very wide range for 3 betting preflop. If it matters, he is about a 18/15 online and very aggressive. Folds to me and I decide to call.

Flop ($51) comes 8 9 2 rainbow. I check and he checks behind after 3 seconds. My initial impression here is that he is weak and is not looking to get involved in a big pot w/ me. I am also under the general impression that he wants to avoid playing a big pot with me period.

Turn ($51) comes 8 9 2 (T), completing the rainbow and giving me the nuts. I lead for 40 after about 15 seconds and he instacalls. At this point i think a hand 77, KJ, or AJ is fairly likely. I think something like A9, T8 or even 66 looking for a cheap showdown is also possible as murph knows I am also very aggressive and would fire here w/ air a decent % of time. When he checked behind on the flop, I felt like there was a chance he flopped a set or a hand like 89, but 300bb deep I assumed he would bet here the vast majority of the time. When he instacalled the turn, I was even less convinced he had a set. For one, I feel like he would raise a set here on the turn almost always. And also, if he did decide to call on the turn, I would think he would take a minute before doing so.

The river ($131) comes 8 9 2 (T)(T). I lead for $100 after 30 seconds and he says "I'm all in" immediately after I put the chips in the pot. I study him for a minute and can't really get any physical tells-he seems fairly relaxed. I say "are you really trying to value raise me w/ A10 here?" No response. Then I say, "if I show you what I folded will you show me" and he says "ya, i'll show you" and then just stares away again. At this point, I am still pretty convinced he doesn't have a boat, but now I'm not so sure. I also begin to think T8 and T9 were possibilities, even though I still think it would be more likely that he would raise the turn. It's about 400 more for me to call.

Thoughts all on streets are appreciated, but I am most interested in hand analysis by the time we reach the river. FWIW my above assumptions are based on a few talks with murph, and these 20 hands are the first we have played together, so they could be off. He has not gotten involved in any other big pots.