JJ: CO/Button confrontation against reg

[loosbastard]

Villain is "obsid1an". Have him @ like 20/16 over ~300 hands. Not much in the way of history...but he probably doesn't think much of my game FWIW. I'm running like 28/22 so far.

I don't really like my flop bet sizing...but it is standard for most of my range. Would $20 be better in this spot?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $105.60
BB: $100.00
UTG: $161.30
MP: $162.00
CO: $129.90
Hero (BTN): $101.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $4.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $12.50</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $8.50

Flop: ($26.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $16.00</font>, CO calls $16.00

Turn: ($58.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets $30.00</font>, Hero calls $30.00

River: ($118.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets $43.00</font>, Hero folds

[Acevader]

As played fine IMHO until the river.

A turn lead like that is usually a vulnerable hand that he fears you taking a free card against. I expect him to have A10,Q10,K10 here often and maybe 99 and such like. He may also be on the come with a draw hoping his line will pick up the pot if you have nothing or maybe even get you to fold "something".

The river looks like a blocker to me. You've shown some strength in calling that turn bet and I'd expect a value bet to be at the very least $80 here and he should reasonably expect you to pay that holding A10 and the likes. I think he has a weak holding that he wants to showdown but fears you'll bet the river far harder that $43 or even bluff that king.

I call, I put him on A10/Q10 or a missed draw.

[gimmetheloot]

^^^ awful advice.

LB, Flop bet is fine man.
turn is fine, river is a bitch since he might have played AKhh/KQhh/TT this way.

I dont see him having u beat really with any other hand though

[The Good]

You can make arguments for just calling pf. I don't disslike a 3-bet however.

As you said I think around 20 would be nice on the flop. I play it the same on turn and call river. You got almost 4-1 and therefore you must just be good 20% of the time, there's no way you isn't. I don't really see how a K could have helped him, AhKh and KhQh I guess, but no other of his hands.

[Acevader]

How's my advice awful? We agree 100% until the river and then you say, "you don't see him having you beat with any other hand though" suggesting there are at least a significant amount of other hands that villain has that hero beats (which is exactly my point). So you are saying this river is an easy fold gimme?

[loosbastard]

[ QUOTE ]
The river looks like a blocker to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain only has like $20 something left and obviously can't fold to a shove.

[Acevader]

My bad, didn't notice that. Apologies.

Why the hell isn't he betting AI???? If you can call $43, you can call $63!

I still think this is an easy call given the odds offered.

[loosbastard]

[ QUOTE ]
turn is fine, river is a bitch since he might have played AKhh/KQhh/TT this way.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT seems very likely. Not so sure about big hearts...seems like he'd C/R flop and try and get it in. But yeah, I really don't beat [censored] unless he decided to turn like 99/66/77 into a bluff which I don't see from regs that often at these stakes. His smallish bets also made a bluff seem really unlikely.

[gimmetheloot]

[ QUOTE ]
How's my advice awful? We agree 100% until the river and then you say, "you don't see him having you beat with any other hand though" suggesting there are at least a significant amount of other hands that villain has that hero beats (which is exactly my point). So you are saying this river is an easy fold gimme?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just dont see where u are coming up with A-QT? the dude is a reg and OOP...

[Acevader]

Actually I change my answer to push in light of the stack revelations. As you say he can't fold so if we're good enough to call here we are good enough to push for value since villain is forced to call with all his weaker hands