big draw vs. heavy action, 10 NL

[lolasthma]

villain is completely unknown at this point.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $9.25
Hero (SB): $10.15
BB: $5.90
UTG: $21.85
CO: $6

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, CO calls $0.10, <font color="red">BTN raises to $0.20</font>, Hero calls $0.15, BB calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.80) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $0.10</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $0.20</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.20</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $4</font>

[nebben]

Against a range that includes AA, KK, KQ and KJ you have 46% equity.I think this range is fair because he raised a check raise, which makes me discount KJ a little bit. If you push, you are putting 9.05 into a 19 dollar pot, thus you are putting about 47% into the pot. I think this is a fold under those circumstances. Given the minraise, I think I would have just called and taken a turn card with a strong draw and a multiway pot

[well named]

Against a range including {KK+,AK,33,99,K9,flush draws} you're about a 45/55 dog, but even with 0 fold equity it's about neutral EV at worst to shove with the dead money in the pot, so I think it's OK to just stick it in. Add a 10% chance he's an idiot who would do this with other top pairs and it must be at least slightly +EV. There will be a lot of variance, but I just get it in here and see what happens.

Edit: nebben, jinx. I swear I didn't see your post first. I think it's marginal but if you're properly rolled and can handle the variance I don't mind flipping a coin here with perhaps a small edge. If nothing else I'll try to make use of the image it affords me.

Also, I'm not sure your EV calc is correct, but i'm just eye-balling this. After BTN raises to 4 your 1.20 is dead so I'm counting it as part of the pot. Basically when you raise the flop you're pricing yourself in to shove I think.

[nebben]

Does being priced in to shove mean that he most liekly should have just called the flop?

[well named]

I think it's OK to just call the flop (.20 raise, not the other one), but I would rather play this kind of hand aggressively because in general it gains equity from getting it in on the flop (because we have difficulty extracting value OOP when we hit, and have lost a lot of equity and have to fold the turn when we miss) and because it balances my range against the times I play a set here in the same way.

Against a normal flop range our raise to 1.20 must have enough fold equity to be the best play, the fact that occasionally we find ourselves in a situation where we get it in with 0EV doesn't really change that. Basically, when we take into account our strategic options not just for this hand, but for the whole range of hands we could have on the flop, I think playing a strong draw like this aggressively adds more EV to our whole range than just calling does.

[Maunzekater]

Calling BTN's 5bet (if you count his minraise as a bet) is awful. If you don't hit on the turn, are you going to fold?
Look at the stack sizes. As played, only a shove makes sense.

I don't understand OP's c/r. If you like to get in all-in (gamboool), the bet/3bet all-in. Sucks if he calls and pushes a blank turn.

[well named]

Sorry, i'm talking about calling the original .20 BTN raise, not the 4$ raise, and I assumed nebben was as well. Calling the 4$ raise is bad of course.

[Maunzekater]

Oups, i misunderstood. My bad.

[lolasthma]

right. i realize calling the 5bet is awful, as played. in this situation it's shove/fold

that said, i'm not usually a fan of donking the flop but do you think it's better here than the c/r?

[Maunzekater]

If you like to get it all-in on the flop, i think that donking for about 1/2 pot size is great. If BB and CO call and BTN reopens the betting by raising (best scenario), you can easily shove.

Not sure if that is the best line, but i guess i'd take it.