NL25 KK

[stillnaive]

There's just too many assumptions around the check argument for me. He could have a myriad of hands, given the fact he's a hyper-aggro given the stats (granted, probably a smaller sample than you'd like). You think he's going to fold JJ-QQ and put us on KK (NOT AA OR AK WHATSOEVER, NO SIR), but at the same time, he won't be aware of pot odds whatsoever? Exactly who are we playing against?

[aaharty]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has no idea of pot odds, he also probably doesn't know anything about reads, either. How do you know he puts you on KK if you're playing against the donk of the century? There's too many hypotheticals there. If you go all in and he folds, he made a major league mistake based on pot odds. Bar none. You ARE giving him the opportunity to make a mistake, it's just a different mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol your right that is another mistake he could make. The point is he makes the mistake of shoving to your check MORE than he makes the mistake of calling your shove, thus the former is the better option.

[ama0330]

EVERYONE

What hand could we possibly have which would 4bet then check this flop?

[stillnaive]

I guess what I'm arguing is that he'll call with some hands that we beat, and he'll probably fold some hands that beat us, so the WA/WB argument is bunk. His VP$IP and PFR are high enough that he could be re-raising with a wide, wide variety of hands. He could fold lower aces (even donks sometimes know that TPWK is foldable), and he could (probably will) call with worse hands like JJ/QQ. Push, give him the opportunity to make a retarded fold or a good/bad call.

[aaharty]

[ QUOTE ]
There's just too many assumptions around the check argument for me. He could have a myriad of hands, given the fact he's a hyper-aggro given the stats (granted, probably a smaller sample than you'd like). You think he's going to fold JJ-QQ and put us on KK (NOT AA OR AK WHATSOEVER, NO SIR), but at the same time, he won't be aware of pot odds whatsoever? Exactly who are we playing against?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought we were saying he might fold JJ/QQ because he isnt aware of pot odds, not because he puts us on KK. Fish who arent aware of pot odds still know enough to find that board scary with JJ/QQ..

[aaharty]

[ QUOTE ]
EVERYONE

What hand could we possibly have which would 4bet then check this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Most of the range is AA/KK/AK but at NL25 I would still put QQ/JJ in there (QQ at least) for 4-betting. A check is possible with all these hands??

[stillnaive]

Which means that the assumption that villain never calls the flop push is dubious, because we're assuming he has one deficiency but not the other. If he checks it through with QQ/JJ, we're giving him a chance to catch up but we're not getting any extra value out of the hand. If he bets, we're in the same spot as we were before, because we can't make an educated decision as to whether he has Ax or QQ/JJ/TT/air. IN ADDITION, as AMA said, you're holding up flashing yellow sign that says I HAVE KINGS, which means he's probably NOT betting QQ/JJ if he checks it through (since, as I think we all agree, only a moron realizes he's not pot committed here)

The only thing you're doing if you check it is, at best, putting yourself in the exact same situation as you were when you had the first action on the flop.

[Maunzekater]

[ QUOTE ]
EVERYONE

What hand could we possibly have which would 4bet then check this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Touché. Even a complete moron should put OP on KK.

[nebben]

I think that an average 25NLer reraises pf here with AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AKs, AKo, and given the stats, maybe AQ. You have about 15 left, and the pot is big. Against this range, yourequity on the flop is like 35 percent. You have to put 13 in to win a 50+ dollar pot, but I think that he folds most hands like JJ-QQ etc if you open push. Accordingly, i think you have to check and call, because he might bet some hands that you beat that he won't call with.

[stillnaive]

Look at the stats. He's raising with more than that.