$10 NL KK in trouble on flop

Harry Fong · #1 09-23-2007, 08:14 AM

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.02/$0.05 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $2.64
BB: $6.05
UTG: $16.30
MP: $5.76
CO: $4.62
Hero (BTN): $9.97

Reads: UTG is 29/2.5/1, BB is unknown

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG raises to $0.10, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, SB folds, BB calls $0.35, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.22) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB bets $0.20, UTG raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $1.60, BB calls $1.40, UTG raises all-in to $15.90, Hero ???

Any suggestions?

Khumalo · #2 09-23-2007, 08:32 AM

Wow, UTG's bet sizing and actions pf and post scream 'I'm a donk and I don't really know this game that well, plus I could be spastic.' KK might be good here because it's so hard to put UTG on top or second set given pre-flop, which only leaves 44 and QJ (and AA rarely.) Hand reading can be difficult at this level, but he's showing so much strength when he min-raises and then shoves over you on the flop. I usually need specific prior hands in which villain shoves 100-200 BB effective with just a pair or a (pair/overs+) draw to call here.

Khumalo · #3 09-23-2007, 10:52 AM

PS. I tried constructing a range vaguely consistent with villain's sequence of bets and raises pre and post and came up with [AA(20% of the time), QQ(25%), JJ(25%), AQ(25%), AJ(25%), 44, QJ, AdTd, AdJd] which is a little conservative (I gave him only two flush draws) and yet somewhat generous in discounting top and second set. Your equity when he shoves is ~40%. You're getting ~1.6:1, which means you need ~38% equity to call. So it's close, and it seems a call is okay, though very dependent on how you tweak the range I invented.