$1/$2 - TPTK on river, pretty good board... value C/R??

[Idiotex]

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im not sure how much i like this...

we check river hoping he fires with a missed draw right?
but then we raised, so were now hoping he calls with like KQ/QJ/88 etc?

the thing is that if hes calling our river ch/r with a bare Q (he would have to suck pretty bad), then hes definitely calling if we just fire river in the first place - and we can bet signifigantly more than $70...

so i guess i much prefer either
1)betting river for 80 or so
2)check/calling river as plannned
3)or ch/r'ng an amount much more than $70 - maybe like 100-110.

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I totally agree. I mean if he's bluffing with a busted draw, clearly he won't be calling a raise. If you check raise him he will almost certainly fold any hand he was making such a horribly weak value bet with (unless he had a boat and he's just terrible). Value betting as per normal to get value out of weaker queens is best, or just check calling is also fine. If you had a loose image maybe you could check raise the river all in to rep a bluff. To do this successfully you obviously need to be leading regularly with your draws on the flop and turn.

[cs3]

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but i still maintain that this line is not optimal...

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If we are talking about preflop through first river action I disagree and like the line, I am finding more and more spots to let draws hang themselves
<font color="blue"> No - PF, flop turn, river check are all good, and i play them the same all the time - i only dont like the river if you were planning to ch/r... which is what i mistakenly thought you "trying out" to see if it ws a good line to use regularly with this type hand </font>


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we cant count on the average villain to do that with any regularity at all,

[/ QUOTE ] to do what, bluff a missed draw on the river? disagree.
<font color="blue"> no, we cant count on him to make that stupid 1/5th pot bet he made and then call with worse Q's.. because thats hardly ever happening.
and if villain (1) does actually take that line and (2)doenst fold to your raise, then he has trips or better more often than a worse Q</font>





The intent of the river check is not to C/R for value but to maximize value versus air, and possibly C/R maybe the 1%-5% of the time it makes sense.
Well this spot fell into that really rare category, so I figured it worthy of a thread, to see if any of my ideas were echoed.


<font color="blue"> this is perfectly fine/good and i understand why you played it this way </font>




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[catcher193]

*we checked the river intending to snap off a bluff, once he bets, we can forget about this and move on to the next stage of the hand.

*To everyone who has said whiffed draws will just fold to the river C/R, whats your point?

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All, these are the ONLY things we need to consider on the river AFTER we check AND he bets:


a) if I C/R will I ever get 3 bet bluffed off my hand on the river?
uhh, no. In over a million hands I can only remember seeing 2 people (not including myself), pull off a weak C/R inducing bet to rebluff with air successfully.
It just does not happen, not here.


b) does a call show positive expectation?
I think its pretty unanimous that it does.


c) does a river value C/R yield a higher expectation than a call?


Well to figure this out we need to know the following:

- What is his handrange for betting $20 on the river?
I just do not see people ever value betting anything stronger than TPTK on this river that small, I think his handrange is almost entirely worse than ours.

- Which of these hands does he call a C/R with?
This is where it gets tricky IMO, but I think his river sizing is such a bad tell that he almost always has worse here, making our bet essentially a freeroll (doesn't matter, but for arguments sake almost all worse Q's, and maybe the 2% of the time he shows up here with TPTK+)

- What river C/R sizing yields the highest expectation?
It seems our opponent is fairly donkish, against others I might make a min C/R or C/R shove and try to "level" them however I see fit, but this guy... I think $70 on this river fits well as a smooth $50 raise that he should call with worse more than twice as much as he'd call a raise to $120 with, and nearly as often as he calls a smaller sized river C/R.




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If you had a loose image maybe you could check raise the river all in to rep a bluff.

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villian like 1/6th potted the river IP, I don't think he is very very good (not that his sizing is all justification).

IMO his though process will go something like this when facing a shove:
HE BET BIG HE HAVE BIGGER HAND THAN ME, (resulting in a fold)

however, even if he is on level 1 here he has to know his river bet induces action, which is why IMO a medium sized C/R is best.

[Genz]

So what happened? Was your handreading on spot?

[cs3]

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- What is his handrange for betting $20 on the river?
I just do not see people ever value betting anything stronger than TPTK on this river that small, I think his handrange is almost entirely worse than ours.



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see i just dont think this is neccessarily true... the guy is a donk, no debate there. and i see donks make stupidly small river bets all the time with monster hands because theyre scared to death of having a guy fold to a real bet.




like i said, i like the hand as played, but i disagree with a few assumptions you make