OK, so I don't play many limped pots. BB Special.

[bilbo-san]

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I think a FD is part of his range; however, I dont think it tends to be as large as you think, unless you have a specific read on him. I also think that he may just check behind w/ a flush draw. So the combination of times you have a pair check behind and also the times the FD checks behind makes leading better imo. I dont remember reading in op if you had him noted as bets when checks to but that obv makes it easy. Also if I checked here it is def w/ intention of c/ring.

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The fact that you think a FD checks behind is irrelevant because it's never calling a bet. Versus a flush draw, checking is better than betting (assuming you won't fold when he bets) unless you have some maniacal read that he'll always raise a lead but never bluff if you check (sic).

Whether or not a made hand checks is another question. But not many made hands are calling a bet either! The board is scary as hell!

I think that his bet is a bluff or some hand like two pair that is hoping I have a good Ace and can't fold. No one with one pair is betting here, and they are rarely calling a bet either.

Assign a range of hands for Villain. Then tell me how often those hands call a $40 bet.