Something is Rotten in the State of Denmark

[SilverLining1]

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I noticed no one mentioned AJ in her range. Of course after two raises we are all folding AJ (and maybe I have online poker syndrome) but the OP mentioned she was loose. Couldn't AJ be in here range too? Why not?

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lol, I thought about AJ, but then I got too confused! So, I minimized its chances, perhaps too much so. If you factor AJ, how much do you factor it? Remember, so far all her raises have been smallish. Now, given you only have a small sample, I see AJ being within that set of "smallish" raises by far more than a raise to 3000 for half her stack.

You'd have to factor in AJ in for a subtantial amount of the time before it becomes influential in making a decision. If you can't find a % for it in your analysis, it's best to let it go rather than let it fester in your mind and invoke a push.

[Spee]

Aside from the other comments that this is probably a fold, and not even a close fold IMHO, I had a couple of other comments.

Is her tell a real tell or a fake tell? Why are you interested in looking at her? Could it be that she picked up something from you looking at her?

I don't think there is much to find fault with in your play except for one seemingly minor, but possibly significant thing.

You have reraised an EP raiser from MP, with a good starting hand, but also one that can be easily dominated by a bad flop. There are still several players yet to act. Your best chances in this situation are to play the hand head-up. You may not win a huge pot, but you have a better chance of winning as opposed to playing 3-way or 4-way.

If you are going to reraise, then I think you have to reraise by enough to give yourself a better chance at getting head-up. It is so early that implied odds are still pretty big and people can still call and overcall with a fairly wide variety of hands, even in a reraised pot.

You offer the next player almost 3-2, and any over-callers even more than that. I think if you raise a little more, perhaps up to 500 or 600 and cut those odds down to 7-5 or less, then you have a better chance of getting all folds. You also will sometimes force a potential slowplay AA or KK off the stall.

In this situation, I think it is unlikely that she has the flush draw, or AhKh as some have suggested. I think it is very likely that she got lucky, flopped a set of Jacks and is now overbetting the pot to protect herself against the flush draw (UTG+1 is still in the hand), but also hoping that you will call if you have an overpair.

She is clearly prepared to go broke here because she is way ahead of any possible holding that you might have. I think the chances of her having JJ (or maybe AA) are very high.

If laying down here, then this is a good one to keep in the memory banks for a possible future set-up, if a similar situation would to occur.