Iggy's Week 5 NCAA Picks

[MicroBob]

iggy - hadn't noticed that line but I completely agree.
MIN's defense has been terrible. Probably only marignally better than NW but not by much I imagine.

23.5 is definitely a line worth taking the Buckeyes on for this game and I'm surprised it's not more even playing in MIN. OSU perhaps a tad undervalued somehow? I don't know but I think that struggle vs. AKR really left an impression on people. And their win at Wash which wasn't a blow-out but was still a decisive win on a long road-trip somehow left people more unimpressed than the performance deserved.

Maybe I'm just more impressed with their game vs. NW than I should be. But man they just looked freaking awesome.
OSU has a very real chance to cover this spread by halftime and maybe even by the 1st Q. They're just too much for the Gophers.

[MicroBob]

Thinking of NCSt +9 hosting LVL.
Thoughts?

Also, I'm with you on AF. Agree that Navy is living on their reputation. Watched parts of Navy/Duke on CSTV last week and both teams were just lousy. Navy just ain't that great.

[iggymcfly]

I honestly have no idea what's going to happen in the NCSt/Lou game. I was thinking at first that the public might be overreacting, but then I looked at the Sagarin ratings, and they said the line should only be 1.5 so I threw that out. Really can't pick a side there at all.

Also, I don't think Ohio State's undervalued as much as I think Minnesota's overvalued. They're coming off a bowl season where they benefited from a +18 turnover margin, and they haven't really played any high-profile games yet for people to realize how bad they are. I think they're the second-worst team in the conference behind Northwestern.

[cookieb]

[ QUOTE ]
Thinking of NCSt +9 hosting LVL.
Thoughts?

Also, I'm with you on AF. Agree that Navy is living on their reputation. Watched parts of Navy/Duke on CSTV last week and both teams were just lousy. Navy just ain't that great.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am on Louisville at -8. I just don't see NC Sate having the weapons to exploit ULs crappy D.

Love Air Force and Ohio State as well

[cookieb]

Also, with a disclaimer that I am a UVA grad and fan so recognize that bias, I noticed that the UVA/Pitt line has dropped to 5.5. Pitt is starting their third QB of the season, which leads me to believe they will not be able to exploit UVA's weaknesses in the secondary. Also, UVA is way better at home than on the road, I really think they cover here easily,something along the lines of 26-14.

[Jazzy3113]

Last night I took a shot at 10/20 NL and lost a lot of my nfl betting roll when QQ<A6 so I took my remaining cash and put it on WVA @ -6.5

I called DSI this morning to explain my tilt induced bet and they LOL'ed and asked if I want to make another deposit. I did.

Anyway, LETS GO WVA -6.5 ONE TIME PLEASE ONE TIME!!!!!

[cookieb]

hey bills217 or anyone else-

Thoughts on Kentucky? Are they likely to take their foot off the gas when they get up on Fla. Atlantic, or do they let Woodson run up the score to pad his stats?

I got a little piece at 23.5 and am considering adding more.

[pokerbobo]

i like this game, but will play the 1st half line up to 13.5.... i think os getting up 2 tds by half should be easy.

[MicroBob]

yeah, I was thinking MIN might be overvalued a tad also. Then I thought "How?" because they are only 1-3 with that win coming over Miami, OH and that was in OT.
And while Miami has had some injuries since then they have still proceeded to get absolutely pounded by Cincy and Colorado. The COL loss was 42-0 for crying out loud.
And this Miami team almost came back to BEAT Minnie.

But when you mention MIN's performance late last year and how that image has found a way to stick with them somewhat I think you are probably right.
People haven't been paying as much attention to MIN and perhaps think that struggles against teams like BG and Miami, etc are somehow justified or not indicative of how bad they are.


Regarding LOU - their defense has been so scary-bad that I just think practically anyone can keep up. MTSU kept up somewhat. SYR freaking beat them. LOU still shows very little ability to be able to tackle practically ANYONE.

They lost to freaking SYR at home. And regardless of whether they were taking them lightly or not the fact remains that SYR had been really awful before that. And LOU should have been somewhat pumped to bounce-back after a loss and play in front of their home-crowd.
Maybe it was still a hangover from an emotional game and they thought they could coast through SYR and whatever other excuses we want to throw in there but I just think they are simply not very good.
Something is really wrong in LOU-land and a motivated NCSt team should have a decent chance of putting some points on the board and hanging around in that game.


Anyway, I enjoy the picks and the write-ups and feel like I'm actually learning something about all this handicapping stuff so thanks for that.

[pirateboy]

I feel like Louisville at -9 is a steal, but in no way am I man enough to play it.