Iggy's Week 4 NCAA Picks

[iggymcfly]

Finished 4-4 this week, +2.167 units, leaving myself 20-26-1, -1.678 units on the year. So almost back to even, although I did lose just under half a unit on live betting which was unposted.

Kind of a weird day, as the big plays that seemed desperately lost (Oregon down 10 at the half, Toledo down 11 with 5:30 left) came through for me, while some others that looked good (Maryland up 21 with 2:00 in the 3rd, GT leading with the ball late) fell apart.

Anyway, in general, I think I need to trust my instincts and my analysis more, and possibly cut down on the number of plays even further. The games I wrote two paragraphs of analysis or more on went 4-0 and the ones that I had weak reasoning on all lost. At least I was in the black this week though, so hopefully, I'll keep improving from here on out.

[PropPlayer]

I enjoyed the analysis thanks for posting this stuff.
The Maryland game I stopped watching I was shocked to see later that it lost. I though there was an error at first till I went back and checked the score.

[SunOfBeach]

[ QUOTE ]
The Maryland game I stopped watching I was shocked to see later that it lost. I though there was an error at first till I went back and checked the score.

[/ QUOTE ]

I watched every second of the game on ESPNU, but yet I still thought there might have been an error and doublechecked my vision, too [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[New001]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK, thanks for the feedback. That's encouraging, even after losing both morning games. I'm also on:

Iowa State vs. Toledo +3.5 (Risk 0.59u to win 0.59u)
Iowa State vs. Toledo +139 (Risk 0.91u to win 1.26u)

Only got part of my initial Matchbook offer matched, so when the line moved I finished up on the moneyline. Anyway, I really like Toledo here. They were ranked much higher going into the season by Phil Steele (#60 vs. #105), and the only reason that Iowa State's favored is due to their rivalry win last week over Iowa. However, that game has historically yielded strange results. In the other two games, Iowa State lost to Kent State by 9 (a team very comparable to Toledo) and lost to I-AA Northern Iowa in a game that was somewhat fluky due to Iowa State badly losing the turnover battle.

Meanwhile, Toledo is a team that plays much, much better at home than on the road. They weren't good enough to play with Purdue anywhere, but probably would have done much better against Central Michigan and Kansas if they could have played them in the Glass Bowl. Over the last 7 years, Toledo is 36-4 at home and 21-20 on the road including a 4-2/1-5 split last year. This seems to be underaccounted for too as Toledo is 24-10 ATS at home and 16-22-3 on the road over the same period.

Also, Toledo has more starters back than Iowa State from a team that took the Cyclones to 3OT in Ames last year. Add in a letdown factor from ISU's big win over Iowa last week (worth at least a FG IMO), and I really think the wrong team's getting the points here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy win. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Couldn't actually watch the game, but I was following on GameCast and Toledo got two TDs in the last 5:30 and then blocked an Iowa State FG with 0:15 to win by 1.

[/ QUOTE ]
Jesus. I knew we got a gift but I didn't know it was that big of one. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I got a couple of this yesterday. It felt nice for a change.