KK Deep with scary board.

eastern motors · #1 08-16-2007, 06:17 PM

Converted by PokerGeek
Absolute NL Hold'em Ring - 0.25/0.25
Blinds (6 handed)

Starting Stacks
Seat 1: Button ($6.10)
Seat 2: Small blind ($61.10)
Seat 3: Big blind ($55.45)
Seat 4: UTG ($20.85)
Seat 5: LP (Hero) ($80.20)
Seat 6: CO ($31.85)

Preflop: Hero is LP with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls ($0.25), Hero raises ($1.25), 2 folds, Small blind raises ($3.10), 2 folds, Hero raises ($8.25), Small blind calls ($5.15)

Flop: ($18.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Small blind checks, Hero bets ($12), Small blind calls ($12)

Turn: ($42.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Small blind checks, Hero checks

River: ($42.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Small blind bets ($20), Hero folds

Final Pot: $38.95

Results not shown

I guess I probably should have bet the turn right? How much? All comments appreciated.

Stonewalled · #2 08-16-2007, 06:23 PM

Any reads on Villain?

[FORGET ABOUT THIS PARAGRAPH -- I'M CHANGING MY ANSWER] Yes, with the huge number of potential draws, you need to bet the turn, and fold to a raise. By checking here, you're begging him to take it away from you on the river -- it would be hard to have any confidence in a call on the river even if had been a blank.

[HERE'S MY NEW ANSWER, PARTICULARLY AFTER HEARING VILLAIN'S STATS] I think checking the turn and folding to a river bet is best. Preflop, his range is probably AA-99, AK. The only hand you beat out of those is 99.

ayurice · #3 08-16-2007, 06:28 PM

What do you put his range on with his pf play? With that J on the turn, you're now beat by AA, QQ, JJ, 1010, and AK. Depending on your read, what is left?

I think i'd bet the flop a little stronger. 12 into 18 seems weak, but maybe that's just me. If i see a fd and sd, i'm making them pay.

eastern motors · #4 08-16-2007, 06:29 PM

Villain is 22/15/1.75 over 143 hands. No reads other than that.

I guess I definitely should have bet the turn. Just inexperienced this deep and looking for pot control.

eastern motors · #5 08-16-2007, 06:33 PM

Betting more the flop might have been good but I felt like he had TT-KK and maybe AK so I thought he might already have a set (TTT or QQQ). The turn puts pretty much his whole range ahead of me.

22/15 indicates that he is probably one of the better players at 25NL.

WarhammerIIC · #6 08-16-2007, 06:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Looking for pot control.

[/ QUOTE ]
Really, you were looking for a reason to play passively. That's the problem with the whole "keep the pot small" mentality... in a lot of cases, it's true, but it's being overused (based on a lot of the hands here lately). You want to keep the pot small when you're in a way ahead/way behind situation. You're definitely NOT in that situation on the turn. If you're ahead, it's probably not by much. So, you need to bet out, big time.

ayurice · #7 08-16-2007, 06:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Betting more the flop might have been good but I felt like he had TT-KK and maybe AK so I thought he might already have a set (TTT or QQQ). The turn puts pretty much his whole range ahead of me.

22/15 indicates that he is probably one of the better players at 25NL.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you put him on TT-KK + AK, then you're behind 2 and ahead 2, with a tie. However, i could see him having a few other hands like AQs. I think you have him on the flop more often than not.

ayurice · #8 08-16-2007, 06:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looking for pot control.

[/ QUOTE ]
Really, you were looking for a reason to play passively. That's the problem with the whole "keep the pot small" mentality... in a lot of cases, it's true, but it's being overused (based on a lot of the hands here lately). You want to keep the pot small when you're in a way ahead/way behind situation. You're definitely NOT in that situation on the turn. If you're ahead, it's probably not by much. So, you need to bet out, big time.

[/ QUOTE ]
What percentage of hands in villain's range can he beat after the turn? It must be very very low.

WarhammerIIC · #9 08-16-2007, 06:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Betting more the flop might have been good but I felt like he had TT-KK and maybe AK so I thought he might already have a set (TTT or QQQ). The turn puts pretty much his whole range ahead of me.

22/15 indicates that he is probably one of the better players at 25NL.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you put him on TT-KK + AK, then you're behind 2 and ahead 2, with a tie. However, i could see him having a few other hands like AQs. I think you have him on the flop more often than not.

[/ QUOTE ]
Edit: Wow, I'm losing it. Thought he had AA for some reason. Yikes.

Anyways, after looking at the read, you probably are beat here a lot. There is still a chance that you're ahead, though... if they would reraise with AJs, AQs, KQs. I'm not sure this particular villain would. The problem is that you open yourself up to getting bluffed on the river by checking the turn. If you're okay with that, then checking behind there is fine. But I think you will get a free showdown on the river if you toss out a bet on the turn (or if you're raised you know for sure you're beat).