Odds of winning the NCAA tournament

Dudd · #1 03-12-2007, 06:52 AM

So, I was bored tonight, and decided to write a little computer program that simulates the outcome of the NCAA tournament. I used www.kenpom.com for his pythagorian rankings, and the log5 method that was original done by Bill James and modified for basketball. I don't really understand it, but it seems to work ok, and is easy enough to program. Anyways, while I mostly did it for my own enjoyment, but figured I should share it with all you guys. I'm pretty sure the calculations are right, they seem to make sense, and the little sneak peek on Pomeroy's website lists 10 teams with a 2% or greater chance of winning, which I also got. So, anyways, here's the top teams according to this method, hope it helps some of you with your brackets.

UNC: 21.28%
Kansas: 19.25%
Ohio St: 11.31%
Florida: 11.10%
Georgetown: 8.88%
Texas A&M: 6.67%
Wisconsin: 5.54%
UCLA: 3.05%
Memphis: 2.60%
Maryland: 2.1%

Here's a pdf link to the full results, with all teams broken down by brackets and full odds on them getting to each round.

Bracket odds

Pudge714 · #2 03-12-2007, 10:39 AM

I'm surprised at the drop off between UNC/Kansas ans Ohio State/Florida

Austiger · #3 03-12-2007, 11:04 AM

Sweet. Thanks.

Green Kool Aid · #4 03-12-2007, 11:16 AM

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I'm surprised at the drop off between UNC/Kansas ans Ohio State/Florida

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That's because it is absolutely ridiculous.

Clarkmeister · #5 03-12-2007, 11:20 AM

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I'm surprised at the drop off between UNC/Kansas ans Ohio State/Florida

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That's because it is absolutely ridiculous.

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Rubeskies · #6 03-12-2007, 11:20 AM

LOL, there is no way any team wins the tournament 21% of the time.

Clarkmeister · #7 03-12-2007, 11:21 AM

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LOL, there is no way any team wins the tournament 21% of the time.

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I think Florida wins it about 25% of the time. Maybe more. I agree about the rest of the teams being much lower.

capone0 · #8 03-12-2007, 11:24 AM

I highly doubt this. Maybe b/c their Region is weak but that seems really high. 21% from UNC is way too high as well. Probally 10% at best.

Green Kool Aid · #9 03-12-2007, 11:27 AM

wisconsin is not built to do well in a tournament IMO.

texas on the other hand can get hot, and certainly should be higher than .67.

i agree about florida prob being the favorites, but i love georgetown/OSU as well because of the big men.

capone0 · #10 03-12-2007, 11:30 AM

Texas is 1-6 against Saragin's top 25 and 2-5 vs the top 50. Texas is good but I think a lot of people are overrating them. They did give Kansas a lot of trouble but I don't think they are as good as Cuse was a couple of years ago when they won it.