Help me put together a poker math presentation...

[MaxWeiss]

I accidentally volunteered to talk about poker math to some friends who play. Above and beyond things like pot odds, what topics do you guys think would be most important??? My basic premise is "math is MUCH more important than you're giving it credit for" and I'd like the presentation to live up to that.

I am thinking of talking about ROI and risk of ruin, but also I'd like to talk about simming various theoretical situations and figuring out optimal bets and other things where the math may reveal something important. Maybe I could also discuss various aspects of Poker Tracker and how that and a display program (e.g. PA-Hud) can be useful.

I have the Chen book, although I'm only on like page 40 and the reading is slow, since I'm self-taught in the stats department.

Any advice on WHAT to talk about is much appreciated, as well as HOW if it's likely that I'm too stupid to pick it up myself.

Thanks for your help!!!

[DonkBluffer]

I just googled for that book and I insta-ordered it. Didn't know it existed. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I am calculating stuff now, because my understanding of the underlying concepts and math in poker is bad. Anyway, one thing you could explain with calculations is that it is almost never good to call a reraise with a small pocket pair in NL for set value only, because:
a) you will hit a set or better <12% of the time
b) when you do hit your set you will not get all-in every time
c) when you do get all-in your equity will be <100%

Another thing you could explain is that sometimes going all-in with a draw is +EV because of fold equity, and then you can calculate the required fold equity in certain situations, etc.

Also, let's say your opponent 3bets with TT+ and AQ+. Flop comes 862r. He'll have A-high 51% of the time here, right? That means that you can make a small raise over his cbet with any two and you will make a profit, assuming that he will fold A-high.

I think you can figure out all sorts of stuff when you consider ranges, your equity, fold equity, etc.

[gamble4pro]

An issue that is subject of many articles published in the last year is the part of math in a poker strategy. This is still controversial. You may google this and found good articles.
If you want to strictly refer to the math of the game, take excerpts from Chen's, Barboianu's or Petriv's books. They are the best.
But I think you should also include a discussion of the role and part of the math within a winning strategy.

[jesse8888]

Google ICM. You could talk about that for 2 hours easy.