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#11
03-12-2007, 12:58 PM
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Re: Odds of winning the NCAA tournament
[ QUOTE ]
Texas is 1-6 against Saragin's top 25 and 2-5 vs the top 50. Texas is good but I think a lot of people are overrating them. They did give Kansas a lot of trouble but I don't think they are as good as Cuse was a couple of years ago when they won it. [/ QUOTE ] They can beat anyone but have virtually no shot to win 6 games in a row in the tourney. 
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#13
03-12-2007, 01:03 PM
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Re: Odds of winning the NCAA tournament
The more you think about it, how ridiculous is it to have a system where the best team wins the championship 25% of the time?
I love the NCAA tournament and all, but its the biggest crapshoot in major sports.
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#14
03-12-2007, 01:12 PM
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Re: Odds of winning the NCAA tournament
[ QUOTE ]
The more you think about it, how ridiculous is it to have a system where the best team wins the championship 25% of the time? I love the NCAA tournament and all, but its the biggest crapshoot in major sports. [/ QUOTE ] If the best team is only marginally better than the 2nd best, and 3rd best, and 4th best, this doesn't seem that strange.
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#15
03-12-2007, 01:15 PM
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Re: Odds of winning the NCAA tournament
Yeah, you can't really compare NCAA sports to the NFL, NBA, MLB because there is such parity and there are so many teams. If you compare the NCAA tourney to other NCAA championships, I think the results are similar. College baseball certainly is. Let's not even get into college football.
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#16
03-12-2007, 01:19 PM
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Re: Odds of winning the NCAA tournament
I guess if you combined the % of the top 5-6 teams in the country you'd get 75%+ cumulative, so that's one way of looking at it.
But in a smaller tournament field (say 16 teams) you'd at least have these good teams always playing head to head to decide it. Right now you have the top 16 teams in the nation with a legit chance and then another 48 that just add variance really.
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#17
03-12-2007, 01:27 PM
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Re: Odds of winning the NCAA tournament
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, you can't really compare NCAA sports to the NFL, NBA, MLB because there is such parity and there are so many teams. If you compare the NCAA tourney to other NCAA championships, I think the results are similar. College baseball certainly is. Let's not even get into college football. [/ QUOTE ] This has been discussed ad nauseum, but NCAA football gets it right more than any league except the NBA.
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#18
03-12-2007, 01:49 PM
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Re: Odds of winning the NCAA tournament
[ QUOTE ]
I guess if you combined the % of the top 5-6 teams in the country you'd get 75%+ cumulative, so that's one way of looking at it. But in a smaller tournament field (say 16 teams) you'd at least have these good teams always playing head to head to decide it. Right now you have the top 16 teams in the nation with a legit chance and then another 48 that just add variance really. [/ QUOTE ] But even if they play head-to-head, its still a crap shoot. The difference between the 1st and 5th best teams in the country is really not that great. I doubt one team would win more than 60% of games if they played a large series of games. At least this year. Some years, some teams are incredibly dominant.
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#19
03-12-2007, 01:51 PM
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Re: Odds of winning the NCAA tournament
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] LOL, there is no way any team wins the tournament 21% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] I think Florida wins it about 25% of the time. Maybe more. I agree about the rest of the teams being much lower. [/ QUOTE ] As long as Fla doesn't have to play any good teams, they could win 25% of the time. Maybe.
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