100nl: Three barrel bluff

[crunchi]

Villain is a NIT. He is running at 11/6/2 over 350 hands.

I almost never over limp but i thought i'd mix it up a bit for once. My PF range is wide.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($230.65)
MP ($101.70)
CO ($86.50)
Hero ($119.35)
SB ($79.30)
BB ($122.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $1, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $3</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $11</font>, SB folds, BB calls $8.

Turn: ($26) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, BB calls $20.

River: ($66) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>

<font color="blue"> Ok, im pretty confident that villain has either 77-TT or a better missed draw, weighted more towards the missed draws because he is likely to fold PP's to the second barrel. I think he would fast-play his str8, sets/2pr hands.

Im repping the Str8, sets, 2pr and missed draws.

Thoughts? </font>

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
Most often fold preflop, sometimes raise. Call the flop, this guy doesn't bet the flop light multiway and you might get to take the pot down if a scarecard hits later.

Check the river. You're beating busted draws. PPs fold the turn most often. Kxss will call you down anyways. Maaaybe you'll get Jxss to fold.

[crunchi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
Most often fold preflop, sometimes raise. Call the flop, this guy doesn't bet the flop light multiway and you might get to take the pot down if a scarecard hits later.

Check the river. You're beating busted draws. PPs fold the turn most often. Kxss will call you down anyways. Maaaybe you'll get Jxss to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. I didnt realise i had a pair. I guess trhat makes the bluff a bit [censored] considering a fairly large chunk of his range is missed draws IMO.


In regards to Kxss, i can only see him getting to river with K4s

edit: or KJs

[Speedlimits]

you get less credit here because it's a limped pot.

this looks like a missed draw so hard precisely because of your pf action.

also bet sizing on the river is bad,

[crunchi]

[ QUOTE ]


also bet sizing on the river is bad,

[/ QUOTE ]

What would you make it?

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


also bet sizing on the river is bad,

[/ QUOTE ]

What would you make it?

[/ QUOTE ]

54

[Zen_Approach]

I think this is an ok three barrel. You are pretty much representing the set/straight, and you'll probably get him to fold anything worse than KJ here.

BTW, what is his WTSD%? might help in determining if he will get away from a medium strenght hand here.

[EasyAs1-2-3]

Considering nitty villain isn't gonna lead (and call the flop raise) at this pot w/o having something. Thus he's unlikely to fold turn. We have tonsa outs, why not peel on the turn and hope to hit?