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  #1  
Old 12-02-2007, 01:03 AM
Noam Chomsky Noam Chomsky is offline
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Default Ok spot for a bluff?

Btn is a fairly nitty tag. Villain seems like a good tag of the 25/20 variety. Sometimes I squeeze here, this time I did not.

Main villain is co, only played about 200 hands vs him but so far, he seems solid. Seems to love to c/r turns and try generally tricky stuff, perhaps to a fault and at weird times imo but whatever, I've only seen a few and just thought the timing/board texture was weird.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $767.80
UTG: $106.35
MP: $102.20
CO: $200
BTN: $331.75
SB: $164

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, MP calls $2, CO raises to $10, BTN calls $10, SB folds, Hero calls $8, MP folds

Flop: ($33) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($33) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $22, 1 fold, Hero raises to $72



I feel like he doesn't always have to have an A here, btn is set mining pretty much 100%, when he does, he doesn't have to go too many levels deep to realize that I know he has one and wouldn't make this move unless I could beat that A, right? Retarded?
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  #2  
Old 12-02-2007, 01:10 AM
Speedlimits Speedlimits is offline
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Default Re: Ok spot for a bluff?

people dont fold on paired boards.
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  #3  
Old 12-02-2007, 01:12 AM
thac thac is offline
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Default Re: Ok spot for a bluff?

I dislike it
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  #4  
Old 12-02-2007, 01:33 AM
Noam Chomsky Noam Chomsky is offline
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Default Re: Ok spot for a bluff?

sl, I tend to agree that people don't fold to flop raises on paired boards but you don't think the fact that we're on the turn can work to our advantage here?
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Old 12-02-2007, 01:36 AM
thac thac is offline
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Default Re: Ok spot for a bluff?

But how often is he bluffing with air against two people, both of which can have an ace? I just don't think he's gonna have KQ or something here enough times. Don't forget that our setminer button can have 22 still.
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  #6  
Old 12-02-2007, 01:41 AM
spivey spivey is offline
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Default Re: Ok spot for a bluff?

I don't like it. He'll probably think "I probably will be checking here with a lot of my range because I want cheep showdown, he'll realize that, and lead with a T to get calls from a wider range of hands".
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  #7  
Old 12-02-2007, 01:41 AM
chiTown22 chiTown22 is offline
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Default Re: Ok spot for a bluff?

I believe you need to have a read that this guy can fold one pair hands. If you believe he will fold solid top pair hands like AJ in this spot, then I think this is a +EV bluff.
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  #8  
Old 12-02-2007, 01:42 AM
spivey spivey is offline
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Default Re: Ok spot for a bluff?

[ QUOTE ]
I believe you need to have a read that this guy can fold one pair hands. If you believe he will fold solid top pair hands like AJ in this spot, then I think this is a +EV bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously if he folds hands like AJ this is +EV, that's stating the obvious.
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  #9  
Old 12-02-2007, 01:50 AM
chiTown22 chiTown22 is offline
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Default Re: Ok spot for a bluff?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe you need to have a read that this guy can fold one pair hands. If you believe he will fold solid top pair hands like AJ in this spot, then I think this is a +EV bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously if he folds hands like AJ this is +EV, that's stating the obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]
The facter that determines the EV on this play is the players abiity to fold an ace not how often he has an ace. I didn't see it mentioned in OP. If that is obvious, my bad.
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  #10  
Old 12-02-2007, 02:12 AM
Noam Chomsky Noam Chomsky is offline
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Default Re: Ok spot for a bluff?

yah, I didn't have a read that strong either way. He seemed to be a pretty good, looser tag so I assumed that if my line was credible he could fold an A.

Basically, I just sort of thought, hmm, if i were him I'd be in a pretty [censored] spot here if I got c/r'd some stack committing amount with AQ.
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