UFC 76

[threeonefour]

i am not a ufc expert but i would just like to say that the word variance is being severely abused in these conversations, and the 'appeal to variance' argument used in this thread is fallacious from a scientific perspective. so i wouldn't be betting my money on account of that.

[TomCowley]

No, it's not. Considering the variance of a style matchup, in addition to the relative skill levels of the fighters, is a necessary part of setting a line.

[MikeyPatriot]

I wouldn't call Shogun's style wild. He's extremely aggressive and keeps a very high pace, but he doesn't really just swing away.

[ QUOTE ]
Pride vs. UFC guys seems to be very high variance in particular. The 'favorite', be it a big fav or a small fav, has lost a lot. Quenton was not expected to win, Big Nog nearly got KTFO'd, CC is down and out, Gomi vs. Diaz, etc etc. Whenever a guy switches orgs, i believe the variance increases, and I think bridge jumping lines become more inappropriate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Nog/Herring is a very good example here. Nog got caught by a kick/knee as he ducked down, but he completely dominated that fight from start to finish.

If you mean Quinton wasn't expected to win against Chuck, I personally had him winning before that fight. Don't really understand why what was expected matters, as he went out and beat him again.

The only other guys that have come over and fought (I might be missing people, I just went through the fighters list from the Pride FC wiki page):

Fabricio Werdum: 0-1, loss to Arlovski
Anderson Silva: 4-0, wins over Leben, Franklin, Lutter, Marquardt

While they aren't perfect comparisons as fighters, I think Shogun is gonna follow a path more similar to A. Silva than Cro Cop.

I just don't think Griffin has much of a chance with Shogun. You say that "Griffin loves this type of fight," but when has Shogun been a standup-only fighter? Shogun has a very solid ground game. Will the rules change hurt him? Maybe, but Chutebox fighters have always trained with elbows. I see Shogun being better in every facet of MMA - he's better standing up, he's better in the clinch, he's better at GNP, and he's better off his back.

[ QUOTE ]
It's just harder than normal to reference skill set vs. skill set with limited common opponent, and different rules/environments.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shogun has fought in a cage (IFC tournament) and under the unified rules twice in Pride (albeit in a ring).

You were right about Kongo though, so maybe I'm way off. I just don't think Forrest can touch Shogun right now.

[warrantofice]

8:00 PM 32573 DIEGO SANCHEZ - - +105
32574 JON FITCH - - -135

Give me Diego all day

[DannyOcean_]

[ QUOTE ]
8:00 PM 32573 DIEGO SANCHEZ - - +105
32574 JON FITCH - - -135

Give me Diego all day

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know that much about fitch, but it's possible people under value diego because he's a whiny bitch.

[MikeyPatriot]

Fitch is a beast. As a book, though, I like the Bodog line more though.

[igetbadbeat]

Diego is a dog because he's supposed to be and he's a very small dog at that. Fitch is an absolutely HORRIBLE paper matchup for Diego... Fitch is a MUCH larger competitor with better boxing and GREAT wrestling. Plus Fitch has a brown belt in BJJ and has shown great prowess on the ground. That is a bad matchup for Diego and he's going to have a hard time winning. He could win, but I don't see how anyone would handicap him as the favorite.

Anderson Silva doesn't count because he was more from Cage rage than from Pride, but hte fact of the matter is you cannot simply say "Pride guys are underperforming compared to their expectations" and then leave it at that when you are handicapping.

Crocop is a 1-D fighter whos style is much more effective in the RING, plus GG is a great fighter too. Think about it, was it really that big of an upset in the eyes of people who don't buy into hype? No, liek randy couture thought, it was not.

The only truely shocking upset I've seen recently was Matt Serra vs GSP, no other fight have I been truly shocked by the results.

Did anyone else see Shogun vs Nakamura? For a wild aggressive striker who is a so called brawler, he sure did avoid the exchanges and simply take Nakamura down to UD a win.

If you are going to say forrest is being undervalued, pleaes lets not just say it's due to "Variance". Why don't you say it's because Forrest has become a much cleaner technical striker after his KO loss to Keith Jardine, and so we could possibly see him winning a UD if he can avoid being taken down. Forrest has shown greatly improved footwork and ability to pick spots in the ramirez fight and Forrest seems to know a ton about Shogun. Add to the mix that he's at Randy's camp and now we KNOW that he not only knows about Shogun, but is coming up with ways to counter Shogun's strength. Plus consider the fact that Shogun just got married and is supposedly taking Forrest lightly(which IMO is only plausible hearsay). I might consider betting on Forrest for those reasons...but certainly not because "it's a high variance fight, lets just bet the underdog".

[billygrippo]

ill prolly take these three bets

KEITH JARDINE +270

DIEGO SANCHEZ EVEN

MAURICIO RUA -360

shogun is just too good to lose more than like 5% of the time here. hes not gonna get submitted and a KO or a decision is pretty unlikely

he epitomizes a well rounded fighter and athlete

i took jardine cause he is pretty good and liddell really isnt that good. hes got insane punching power and a good takedown defense but he really isnt a great boxer and i see him losing this fight ~50% of the time

diego is really good despite my hatred for him so i had to take him as a dog at even money

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
ill prolly take these three bets

KEITH JARDINE +270

DIEGO SANCHEZ EVEN

MAURICIO RUA -360

shogun is just too good to lose more than like 5% of the time here. hes not gonna get submitted and a KO or a decision is pretty unlikely

he epitomizes a well rounded fighter and athlete

i took jardine cause he is pretty good and liddell really isnt that good. hes got insane punching power and a good takedown defense but he really isnt a great boxer and i see him losing this fight ~50% of the time

diego is really good despite my hatred for him so i had to take him as a dog at even money

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Chuck loses 50% of the time and I don't think Shogun wins 96% of the time.

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ill prolly take these three bets

KEITH JARDINE +270

DIEGO SANCHEZ EVEN

MAURICIO RUA -360

shogun is just too good to lose more than like 5% of the time here. hes not gonna get submitted and a KO or a decision is pretty unlikely

he epitomizes a well rounded fighter and athlete

i took jardine cause he is pretty good and liddell really isnt that good. hes got insane punching power and a good takedown defense but he really isnt a great boxer and i see him losing this fight ~50% of the time

diego is really good despite my hatred for him so i had to take him as a dog at even money

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Chuck loses 50% of the time and I don't think Shogun wins 96% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you placed all your bets? This is no joke, I think I'll be the bookie on all of them