3/6 Live; JTo OTB, with a Great, but scarey flop - Page 2

BigAlChicago · #11 07-31-2007, 10:22 AM

The pot was large and I didn't think a raise from the button would do anything to protect my hand on the flop. However, there are 19 scare cards out of the unknown 47 that could sink this hand. Therefore, I treated this like the lower overpair hand in SSHE and decided to wait until the turn to raise when my equity edge would be higher with a non-diamond, non AKQ card as James and Mygtar suggested.

The turn was a non-diamond 4. The BB lead out again, there were one or two callers when I raised. The BB was the only one to call my raise.

An ultimate scare card came on the river, the 10 of diamonds. The BB checked. What do you do now? Remember, the BB was the PFR and only slowed down when I raised the turn.

JJH3984 · #12 07-31-2007, 10:43 AM

Take the showdown if you can get it.

BigAlChicago · #13 07-31-2007, 10:56 AM

I can check behind or bet. What do you think is better?

mntndrew · #14 07-31-2007, 12:16 PM

Heads up, bet it! PF raise has him most likely with two pair/set hands without diamonds that might pay you off.

Aces McGee · #15 07-31-2007, 12:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can check behind or bet. What do you think is better?

[/ QUOTE ]

Bet. The pot is big (meaning he'll call more often) and his raise preflop combined with this flop suggest a big hand without a diamond.

-McGee

ResidentParanoid · #16 07-31-2007, 02:12 PM

If you bet the river diamond, will you fold to the check-raise? I don't think I could (although it might be correct). I just check it through.

Xhad · #17 07-31-2007, 02:14 PM

Folding to the c/r is mandatory.

BigAlChicago · #18 07-31-2007, 02:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Folding to the c/r is mandatory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? The pot will have 17-18 BB at that point. The BB was the PFR. What diamond can you put him on? I think given his PFR and leading the flop, the only thing in his range would be AxJ [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Otherwise, he is likely to have two pair or a set that does not include a diamond.

At the same time, does anyone without the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] c/r this board? Can you bluff at a pot this large?

Xhad · #19 07-31-2007, 02:51 PM

You are going to chop like 2% of the time and lose the rest. If this isn't true then I think a river bet is pretty horrible since it was thin in the first place.

Aces McGee · #20 07-31-2007, 03:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Folding to the c/r is mandatory.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. If he was going to stab at it, he'd just bet.

-McGee